858
FXCA62 TJSJ 140633 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
233 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

UPDATE: Added Fire Danger Statement details and corrected
forecaster names.

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat Risk is elevated today, with a Heat Advisory in effect.
  Risk may decrease over the weekend, then increase again early
  next week, potentially becoming significant by midweek.

- Dry and breezy to locally windy conditions will support
  elevated fire danger today, with a Fire Danger Statement in
  effect. The dry and windy pattern will persist into early in the
  weekend.

- Marine and coastal hazards are ongoing and will remain through
  Sunday. Additional extensions may be needed with the influence
  of AL92, followed by gradual improvement early next week.

- Moisture associated with Invest 92L will increase across the
  region Saturday night into Sunday, enhancing showers and
  isolated thunderstorms. Uncertainty remains, with latest
  guidance continuing to keep the bulk of the rainfall south of
  the local islands.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

Strong high pressure north-northeast of the region will maintain a
tight pressure gradient and increasingly easterly flow today,
pushing a drier air mass across the northeastern Caribbean.
Precipitable water (PWAT) will decrease to around 1 inch, below
climatological values, while very dry mid-level air and a strong
trade-wind inversion suppress convection. Therefore, rainfall will
remain very limited through much of Saturday. Lower Saharan dust
concentrations will linger, but visibility should gradually improve.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist, with 925 mb winds
remaining above climatology. Abundant sunshine and anomalously warm
low-level temperatures will support elevated heat risk today, with a
Heat Advisory in effect. Separately, low relative humidity, dry fuels
and soils, and strong easterly winds will favor rapid fire spread,
particularly across the southern coastal plain and adjacent slopes
of Puerto Rico. A Fire Danger Statement will also be in effect.

Moisture will increase Saturday night into Sunday as Invest 92L and
its moisture field approach the eastern Caribbean. The National
Hurricane Center maintains a medium formation chance during the next
2 and 7 days, although AL92 has become less organized while
encountering stronger upper-level winds and drier air. Latest
guidance generally favors AL92 moving into the eastern Caribbean as
an open wave, with the deepest moisture and bulk of the rainfall
remaining south of the local islands over the Caribbean waters.
Still, PWAT should rise to around 1.7 to 1.8 inches Sunday, favoring
overnight and morning windward showers and isolated thunderstorms,
followed by locally induced afternoon convection across Puerto Rico.
Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds are possible with the
strongest activity, but widespread rainfall is not expected. If
current guidance verifies, Sunday should resemble an enhanced
seasonal convective pattern rather than a widespread heavy-rainfall
event.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

Variable conditions are expected through the period, with generally
east to east-southeast winds and increasing uncertainty late next
week. On Monday, moisture trailing AL92 may support passing windward
showers and afternoon thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico.
Another increase in Saharan dust is also possible. A trade-wind
perturbation may pass late Monday into Tuesday, but latest guidance
keeps most of its activity north of the islands. Ponding of water
and localized minor flooding remain possible with heavier afternoon
showers.

A more seasonal pattern is expected Tuesday through Thursday as
PWAT gradually increases to 1.5 to 1.7 inches. An upper-level low
will also cool 500 mb temperatures to around -6 to -7 degrees C,
increasing instability. Nighttime and morning windward showers will
be followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across
interior and western Puerto Rico, particularly Tuesday and
Wednesday. The flood threat should remain limited, mainly involving
ponding of water, although localized urban and small-stream flooding
cannot be ruled out.

Forecast uncertainty increases Thursday into Friday as the National
Hurricane Center monitors AL94 southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Global guidance generally brings the system toward the northeastern
Caribbean late next week, but differences remain in timing and
intensity, including whether development occurs before the system
encounters a less favorable environment. Continue to monitor the
latest NHC forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected. HZ from Saharan dust will gradually
diminish with improving VIS. No SHRA/TSRA expected at the terminals.
E winds 10-15 kt overnight, increasing aft 14/13-14Z to 20-25 kt
with gusts 30-35 kt, then diminishing again after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

A tight pressure gradient will maintain fresh to locally strong
easterly winds and choppy to hazardous seas around 7 feet, with
occasional seas of 8 to 9 feet across the offshore waters and local
passages. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday into Monday
as AL92 passes south of the region, with the Caribbean waters and
southern portions of the local passages most affected.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

Strong trade winds and choppy to hazardous seas will maintain a
high risk of life-threatening rip currents along most beaches of
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through
the weekend. Rip Current Statements remain in effect through late
Saturday night. Protected western Puerto Rico beaches should remain
at a moderate risk.

Beachgoers should swim near lifeguards and follow beach patrol flags
and posted signs. Breezy to windy conditions may also blow around
unsecured tents, chairs, and umbrellas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

Elevated fire danger is expected today as low relative humidity,
dry fuels and soils, and strong easterly winds favor rapid fire
spread, particularly across the southern coastal plain and adjacent
slopes of Puerto Rico. A Fire Danger Statement will be in effect.

Dry and breezy conditions will continue through much of Saturday
before increasing moisture Saturday night into Sunday raises
relative humidity and reduces fire weather concerns.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late
     Saturday night for PRZ001>003-005-007-008-011>013.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening
     for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013.

     Fire Danger Statement from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this
     evening for PRZ014>019-022>027.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late
     Saturday night for VIZ001-002.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening
     for VIZ001-002.

     Fire Danger Statement from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this
     evening for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-723-733-
     741.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 PM AST Saturday
     for AMZ712-716-726-735.

&&

$$

EVE...CVB/MNG
MID...ICP