301
FXCA62 TJSJ 031740
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL
140 PM AST Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Saharan dust will continue to decrease gradually across the local
  islands.
* Temperatures remain seasonably warm, with maximum temperatures
  expected to range from the upper 80s to mid-90s, accompanied by
  heat indices near 100 degrees each day.
* Breezy conditions will continue to result in a moderate risk of
  rip currents across most shorelines.
* Even with mostly stable conditions, showers and thunderstorms are
  still expected across western Puerto Rico in the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

Mostly sunny skies prevailed across the local islands early in
the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon across
central and western Puerto Rico. So far maximum temperatures
ranged form the upper 80s to the low 90s with heat indices
exceeding 100F at some spots. Limited shower activity was noted
early today, nevertheless showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm may develop this afternoon across western areas of
Puerto Rico. These showers, if any; will dissipate early in the
evening, leaving partly cloudy skies.

Overall, the forecast remains on track. A mid-level ridge extending
from the central Atlantic into the forecast area will continue to
dominate the weather pattern. However, it is expected to briefly
weaken as a short-lived trough develops northwest of the region
Wed-Thu. At the surface, high pressure will maintain fresh easterly
winds over the next few days, shifting to an east- southeast flow
by the end of the workweek into the weekend. The latest model
guidance (GFS and ECMWF) continues to indicate below- normal
precipitable water throughout the forecast period.

As a result, mostly fair weather is expected across the region, with
a few passing showers possible in eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.
Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop across
western areas. Maximum temperatures will continue to range from the
upper 80s to mid-90s, with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees.

Regarding hazy conditions, skies are expected to continue improving
as the Saharan Air Layer moves out of the area. Another round of
Saharan dust is expected to arrive early next week, although it is
not anticipated to be as intense as the previous event.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period,
with VCSH at JMZ through about 03/22z. VIS will continue to
improve. Winds will be from the east at 15-20 knots, with stronger
gusts and sea breeze variation, becoming 15 knots or less
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the Atlantic Basin will continue to
promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the next few
days. Therefore, small craft should exercise caution across most
waters. Haziness will continue to decrease.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy conditions will continue to result in moderate rip current
risk across portions of northern and southern PR and the USVI today.
The risk will then spread toward eastern and northern PR for the
rest of the workweek but improving by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...OMS
AVIATION...YZR