881
FXCA62 TJSJ 141845
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

- A tropical wave known as Invest 92L will move across the Caribbean
  Sea, increasing moisture across the area from late Saturday
  into Sunday morning. Therefore, residents can expect an increase
  in fast-moving showers.

- The U.S. Virgin Islands might experience passing showers from
  Saturday afternoon into Sunday due to Invest 92L.

- Saharan dust particles will remain across the region for the
  rest of today into Saturday morning.

- Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are forecast through
  the weekend. For more detailed information, please refer to the
  Marine and Beach Forecast sections.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

The day started with fair weather conditions as a drier airmass
prevailed over the region. The TJSJ 14/12Z upper-air sounding
indicated precipitable water values around 1.35 inches, which is
considered below normal. Dry air in the mid-levels, accompanied
by a persistent trade-wind cap, have been preventing deep
vertical cloud development across most of the area. Hazy skies
have persisted as moderate to locally high concentrations of
Saharan dust remain over the region through at least Saturday
(tomorrow) afternoon, as another pulse arrives during the
overnight and Saturday morning based on the latest guidance models.
Temperatures have been reaching the low 90s across coastal and
urban areas, while heat indices have reached Heat Advisory
criteria, with the highest observed values around 110-111F.
Winds have been predominantly from the east-southeast at 15 to 25
mph, with some sea-breeze variations influencing the local wind
direction. Gusts have occasionally exceeded 28 mph, particularly
across exposed and coastal areas. As a result, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect until 6 PM AST this afternoon, and a Fire Danger
Statement until 4 PM AST.

For the remainder of the afternoon and through Saturday, hazy
skies, breezy conditions, and generally limited rainfall are
expected to persist. Moisture will increase Saturday night into
Sunday as Invest 92L and its associated moisture field approach
the eastern Caribbean. Current guidance generally suggests AL92
will move as a tropical wave, with the bulk of the deeper moisture
remaining well south of the local islands over the Caribbean
waters. Nevertheless, PWAT values are expected to increase to
around 1.7 to 1.9 inches on Sunday, supporting a gradual increase
in overnight and morning passing showers, followed by locally
driven afternoon convection across Puerto Rico. Winds will remain
breezy to windy, and any shower will be fast-moving, reducing the
chance to observe significant accumulations. The strongest
convection on Sunday may bring locally heavy rainfall, isolated
thunderstorms, and gusty winds, but a widespread rainfall event
is not expected. Overall, through Saturday, heat, fire weather,
and breezy to locally windy conditions will remain the primary
concerns, while Sunday will bring a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms as peripheral moisture associated with AL92 briefly
reaches the region, but no widespread rain event in anticipated.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

Variable conditions are expected through the period, with generally
east to east-southeast winds and increasing uncertainty late next
week. On Monday, moisture trailing AL92 may support passing windward
showers and afternoon thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico.
Another increase in Saharan dust is also possible. A trade-wind
perturbation may pass late Monday into Tuesday, but latest guidance
keeps most of its activity north of the islands. Ponding of water
and localized minor flooding remain possible with heavier afternoon
showers.

A more seasonal pattern is expected Tuesday through Thursday as
PWAT gradually increases to 1.5 to 1.7 inches. An upper-level low
will also cool 500 mb temperatures to around -6 to -7 degrees C,
increasing instability. Nighttime and morning windward showers will
be followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across
interior and western Puerto Rico, particularly Tuesday and
Wednesday. The flood threat should remain limited, mainly involving
ponding of water, although localized urban and small-stream flooding
cannot be ruled out.

Forecast uncertainty increases Thursday into Friday as the National
Hurricane Center monitors AL94 southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Global guidance generally brings the system toward the northeastern
Caribbean late next week, but differences remain in timing and
intensity, including whether development occurs before the system
encounters a less favorable environment. Continue to monitor the
latest NHC forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

Mainly VFR conds across TAF sites. Moderate to locally high
concentrations of Saharan dust are resulting in VIS reductions at
least thru Saturday afternoon. Another aviation concern are the
breezy to windy conditions, winds slightly reducing overnight but
overall, but aft 15/12-14Z will become gusty up to 30 to 32 kts
across all TAF sites. Recent PIREPs indicate LLWS at TIST, and
this conditions will remain possible throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain a
tight pressure gradient across the northeastern Caribbean,
promoting fresh to locally strong easterly winds and choppy to
hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. Seas will
generally build to around 7 feet, with occasional seas of 8 to 9
feet across the offshore waters and local passages. Therefore,
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least Sunday.
On Saturday into Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase as a tropical wave associated with Invest 92L approaches
and passes mainly south of the region. The Caribbean waters and
southern portions of the local passages are expected to experience
the greatest increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, with
locally stronger and gusty winds possible, resulting in hazardous
seas conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic and a
tropical wave will hold breezy conditions along the CWA. This will
hold choppy to hazardous surf conditions across the local beaches
through the weekend. As a result, a high risk of life-threatening
rip currents will persist along most beaches of Puerto Rico,
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rip Current
Statements remain in effect through late Saturday night. Beaches
along western Puerto Rico are expected to remain under a moderate
risk for the upcoming days. Beachgoers are urged to exercise
caution, swim near lifeguards, and follow beach patrol flags and
posted signs. Additionally, breezy to windy conditions along
exposed coastal areas may blow around unsecured objects.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026

Surface observations have been showing winds and minimum relative
humidity values reaching the critical fire weather thresholds
today. Combined with dry fuels and strong easterly winds is
favoring rapid fire spread, particularly across the southern
coastal plain and adjacent slopes of Puerto Rico. A Fire Danger
Statement remains in effect until 4 PM AST. Dry and breezy
conditions will continue through much of Saturday before
increasing moisture Saturday night into Sunday raises relative
humidity and reduces fire weather concerns.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ001>003-
     005-007-008-011>013.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>005-007-008-
     010>013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for VIZ001-002.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-723-733-
     741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AST Saturday for AMZ712-716-726-
     735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE...YZR
LONG TERM...MNG
MARINE/BEACH...LIS