Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
420 FXCA62 TJSJ 091742 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 142 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 119 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025 * Showers and a few thunderstorms brought 13 inches of rain and gusty winds up to 35 mph across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. * Drier air is moving in this afternoon, and weather will improve through tonight. * Mostly fair weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, with only localized showers over western Puerto Rico in the afternoon. * Seas will stay choppy and there is a moderate rip-current risk now. A high risk is likely late Wednesday and Thursday as a north-northwest swell reaches the islands. && .Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 119 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025 Showers and a few thunderstorms have been affecting the eastern and southern half of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands most of today. These showers moved quickly across the region, producing wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph. Rainfall totals have ranged from 1 to 2 inches across the El Yunque area and southern Puerto Rico, with localized amounts up to 3 inches in Ponce, Juana Daz and Santa Isabel. Elsewhere, skies have been mostly cloudy with light passing showers. Morning temperatures stayed in the low to mid-80s due to cloud cover and rain. Satellite images show drier air moving into the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico early this afternoon. As the easterly wave moves away, weather conditions will improve, and showers will decrease by late afternoon and evening. By Monday, a ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the region, bringing more stable and dry weather. Moisture will drop to near one inch late Monday into Tuesday, and only brief showers are expected over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A few afternoon showers may form over western Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence, but flooding risk will stay low. Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the period. The ridge will continue to dominate, keeping fair weather with moderate to breezy trade winds. Quick showers may move over windward areas overnight and early in the morning, followed by mostly sunny skies. Any afternoon showers will be brief and focused over interior and western Puerto Rico. && .Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)... Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025 A mid to upper level ridge will prevail across the local islands through the forecast cycle, with some weakening anticipated toward the end of the period as a polar trough and its associated frontal boundary move across the western and central Atlantic. At the surface, a broad high-pressure system positioned northeast of the islands will maintain easterly winds through at least the end of the workweek. However, as the aforementioned surface front approaches the area, winds are expected to veer to east-southeast and become light and variable. Under the subsidence associated with the ridge aloft, precipitable water values are expected to remain below normal for much of the workweek. However, an increase in PW values is expected over the upcoming weekend as the ridge aloft weakens and the surface front moves closer to the local islands. As a result, a seasonable weather pattern is anticipated across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with a few passing showers affecting portions of eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the nighttime and early morning hours, followed by limited afternoon convection across western and interior Puerto Rico. Additionally, seasonable temperatures will prevail, with daytime highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s across coastal and lower-elevation areas. Overall, no significant weather threats are currently anticipated. However, the flooding potential may increase toward the end of the period due to moisture advection associated with the approaching frontal boundary. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through the period. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect TJPS the rest of the afternoon with reduced visibility and low ceilings. Activity will decrease later today as drier air moves in. VCSH remains possible for TJSJ due to passing showers. Winds will be from the east to southeast at 1015 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, becoming lighter after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025 A surface high pressure over the north central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days. An easterly wave will bring additional showers, and isolated thunderstorms are expected for the rest of the afternoon, particularly over the Caribbean Waters and the Mona Passage, small craft should exercise caution. A north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous marine conditions across the local waters and passages by midweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 119 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with possible life-threatening rip currents in the surf zone. By midweek, a north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous beach conditions, particularly along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, increasing the risk of rip currents. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of the flag warning system and to always swim near a lifeguard. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ERF BEACH FORECAST/MARINE....MNG