Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
079 FXCA62 TJSJ 100630 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 230 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 * Fair weather will persist through much of the period, with brief interruptions of showers reaching the islands at times. * The risk of rip currents will increase to high on Thursday for the northern coast of Puerto Rico, including Culebra. * Seasonably warm temperatures, plenty of sunshine, and only a few showers are in the forecast for the Virgin Islands for most of the week. && .Short Term(Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 Fair and stable weather conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. However, some patches of cloudiness filtered across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, producing a few light showers that led to minimal rainfall accumulations. Temperatures remained in the 70s across urban and coastal areas and in the 60s to low 70s in the higher elevations as skies cleared during the night, unlike previous days. The latest satellite imagery indicates a drier air mass advancing from the Lesser Antilles, which will gradually filter across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today into midweek. The latest model guidance also shows this trend, suggesting a decline in precipitable water values and 700 to 500 mb relative humidity levels to near one inch, particularly by late Monday into Tuesday. Meaning that only brief showers are expected over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours, while in the afternoons, some localized showers may develop across western Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence and local effects, but no flooding concerns are anticipated through the short term period. Tuesday remains on track to be the driest day of the forecast period, as a strong mid-level ridge continues to dominate the region, maintaining fair weather conditions. Occasionally breezy easterly trade winds will filter across, bringing isolated quick- moving showers across windward areas during the night and early morning, followed by mostly sunny skies during the day. Any afternoon convection will be brief and localized mainly over the interior and western Puerto Rico. By Wednesday, similar conditions are expected, with limited moisture and continued influence of the ridge pattern, resulting in stable weather and near-normal temperatures across the region. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 A mid to upper level ridge will stay in place for the end of the workweek and the weekend, maintaining a fair weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. North of the ridge, a polar trough will move from the eastern coast of the United States into the Atlantic Ocean. This will maintain the trade winds week, mostly coming from the southeast at speeds of 11 kts on Thursday, and less than 3 to 8 knots from Friday into early next week. For most of the period, columnar moisture will be below normal, so rainfall activity will be limited to a few showers along eastern Puerto Rico and the United States, and limited convection in the west in the afternoon hours. The risk of urban and small stream flooding will be low to none for the period. The day with the highest chances of rain will be on Saturday, as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Even then, rainfall is not expected to be widespread or too strong, but with enough moisture, showers should fire up along the interior of Puerto Rico, while others also reach the Virgin Islands occasionally. Temperatures will be seasonably warm too, or slightly above normal, with highs still in the mid and upper 80s in urban and low elevated areas. Los will be mostly in the 70s for coastal areas, and in the 60s for the highest mountains. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites through the period. VCSH possible at TJBQ and TJPS after 10/17Z, and at TJSJ, TIST, and TISX after 11/00Z. Surface winds will remain from the east at 10 to 15 knots, with occasional higher gusts, mainly during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 A surface high pressure over the north central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days, maintaining choppy seas. A north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous marine conditions across the local waters and passages by midweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with possible life-threatening rip currents in the surf zone. By late Wednesday and Thursday, a north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous beach conditions, particularly along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, increasing the risk of rip currents to moderate to high. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of the flag warning system and to always swim near a lifeguard. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MMC LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH....ERG