608
FXUS64 KSJT 172355 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
655 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly hot and dry today, with only isolated showers and storms
  possible north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Isolated to
  widely scattered storms possible Monday, with better rain
  chances Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

A few showers and storms developing across portions of the Big
Country southward into the northwest Concho Valley this
afternoon. Some of this across the Big Country into the Red River
Valley is associated with the last of the weak tropical
disturbance that has been moved across the area the last 2 days.
Have added some small POPs into these areas based on satellite of
the developing Cu field.

For Monday, some of the CAMs like the HRRR and NAMNEST continue to
show very little convection across the area for Monday, while
others like the FV3 and ARW show a fairly healthy area of showers
and storms developing across the Big Country for Monday afternoon.
Given that the models seem to be underdoing convection the last
few days, will at least lean towards adding some POPs into much of
West Central Texas for Monday afternoon, at least for areas north
of a San Angelo to San Saba line. If nothing else, with highs in
the mid and upper 90s and afternoon dewpoints in the 60s, model
soundings show a largely uncapped air mass across the area so
having a mention of some small POPs seems appropriate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Expansive but weak upper ridging over Texas into the Mississippi
Valley, will move westward and strengthen over the Southwest and
Central Rocky Mountain midweek, bringing This West Central Texas
under north to northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a very weak
cold front moves in Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorm
activity Tuesday, may be enhanced by the weak cold front, to
scattered coverage Wednesday into Thursday. From Friday into the
weekend, the weak front either pushes south or washes out, with
rain potential mainly in southern sections along the I-10 and NW
Hill Country. Confidence on the coverage and amounts of the
rainfall is on the lower side, given the weak forcing this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring early
this evening over the Concho Valley (including the San Angelo
area) and extending south to Fort McKavett. These showers and
storms were moving/developing to the north-northwest. Expect this
convection to dissipate later this evening, with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies overnight. On Monday, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, mostly in the afternoon. With
low/limited coverage anticipated, not including a mention at our
TAF sites. South to southeast winds have been gusty late this
afternoon and early evening. Wind speeds will decrease and winds
will veer to the south toward morning. On Monday, south winds
will increase to 8-11 knots by mid-to-late morning and continue
into the afternoon. Occasional higher gusts are possible. Winds
will back to the southeast by late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     77  99  77  98 /  10  20  10  30
San Angelo  75  98  74  97 /  10  20  10  30
Junction    71  98  72  98 /   0  10  10  40
Brownwood   74  97  74  97 /  10  20  10  30
Sweetwater  77  99  75  98 /  10  20  10  30
Ozona       73  97  72  96 /  10  10  10  40
Brady       73  95  74  95 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19