706
FXUS64 KSJT 111053
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
553 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with above-normal temperatures expected for the
  upcoming week.

- Gusty winds anticipated for Wednesday, followed by stronger
  winds on Friday.

- Increased potential for critical fire weather conditions across
  all of West Central Texas much of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Higher pressure will set in across the region today. This means
warming temperatures can be expected. Highs will be in the lower
to middle 80s. Somewhat breezy southwest winds will be sustained
around 15 MPH with 25 MPH gusts. Expect lows tonight to drop into
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Some elevated fire weather concerns
are the only hazard for today as dry conditions will prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The upcoming week looks to be breezy with well above-normal
temperatures and dry conditions.  Two significant shortwave troughs
are expected to impact the region this week. The first, on
Wednesday, will be a fast-moving southern stream system.  An
associated surface low will develop over the Panhandle by the
afternoon and push a Pacific-based cold front through the area.
Behind the front, chances are medium to high that strong winds of 20-
30 MPH with some gusts over 40 will occur.  This would meet Wind
Advisory criteria if it pans out.  After the system passes,
shortwave ridging aloft should move in for Thursday with
southwesterly winds of 15-20 MPH expected ahead of the next system,
which will be right on it`s tail.  This next system is another,
deeper, trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough
will quickly become negatively tilted and help develop a rapidly-
deepening surface low over the central Plains.  Strong mid-level
winds of 60-100KT and 50KT at 850mb are anticipated which would
translate to 35-45 MPH winds at the surface.  This setup has
similarities to the system that produced high winds and blowing dust
last week but will continue to be monitored for significant changes.
Regardless, both of these systems could produce Critical to Extreme
fire weather conditions due to the strong winds and very dry
conditions.

For Saturday and into early next week, the strong system will move
northeastward into the upper Midwest.  Strong winds should diminish
and temperatures should lower to near-normal for this time of year.
Models bring yet another system on to the West Coast which could
produce strong southerly winds for Monday into Tuesday, but still no
rain chances during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place for the remainder of the TAF
period. The only concern is a little bit low level winds shear
that will be in place until 15z. Breezy, gusty winds will
subsequently develop by the later part of Tuesday morning and
continue until about 0z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

We are entering a period of dangerous fire weather conditions
across western Central Texas. We will see warming temperatures,
increasing winds (20-30 MPH sustained), very low humidity values
(5-15%), and dried fuels (i.e. dry and/or cured grasses). This
will pose Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions on
Wednesday. As a result of these critical conditions, we have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening. Looking ahead, Friday is another day of
significant concern. In fact, ERC percentiles are forecast to be in
the 80-90% range on Friday. We will also see even stronger winds
across the region. Any fires that develop this week will catch and
spread quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Please check
back for updated forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     84  54  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  84  52  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    84  51  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   86  48  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  84  53  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       81  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       84  54  84  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-
San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...41