203
FXUS64 KSJT 150536
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry weather will persist through the weekend and into at
  least the middle of next week.

- Elevated elevated fire weather conditions for Saturday
  afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Our dominant weather feature in the short term is a large upper
level ridge which is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Skies will be mostly clear tonight and mostly sunny on Saturday.
South winds are breezy today and will be breezy again during much of
the day Saturday. Fire weather conditions will be elevated this
afternoon and again Saturday afternoon given the hot, dry and breezy
conditions. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s. Highs
Saturday will range from the mid 90s in our southern counties, to
100-103 in the Big Country and a good portion of the Concho Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Hot and dry conditions will continue Sunday and into next week,
with upper-level ridging remaining in place across the region
through next next weekend. Daily high and low temperatures will
see little change over the next 7 days, with afternoon highs
reaching into the mid 90s and up to around 104 degrees, and
overnight lows in the 70s. The warmest temperatures are expected
across the Big Country and northern portions of the Concho Valley
and Heartland, with the hottest day next week being Wednesday.
South winds will continue each day, but expect wind speeds should
to be a little lower Sunday through Tuesday as the surface
pressure gradient weakens to some extent. Increased south winds
are indicated Wednesday.

Some models are beginning to show potential for an upper-level
disturbance and associated surface "cold" front tracking into West
Central Texas from the northwest overnight Wednesday into
Thursday morning. Models like the 18Z GFS were most aggressive
with showing this system tracking through the area and a closed
upper-level low lingering over the area through next weekend. If
this were to pan out, West Central texas could see a slight
reprieve from the heat and chances for precipitation. However,
this remains an outlier in the model spread, and at this time
there is very low confidence in this scenario coming to fruition.
At this time, the more probable solution is that the upper-level
trough and associated low stay further north, and we`ll likely
just see a slight uptick in cloud coverage and continued hot and
dry temperatures through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Patchy MVFR cigs will be possible in the early morning hours at
both KJCT and KSOA. Any low level stratus should burn off by the
late morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue.
Southerly winds will increase to 12-15 knots in the morning, with
gusts of 20-25 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    100  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  99  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    96  70  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   99  72 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 101  76 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       94  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       96  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...42