122
FXUS64 KSJT 131858
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
158 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  this afternoon. The main concern will be brief heavy rainfall
  and gusty winds.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across our
  southeast counties Thursday afternoon.

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected Friday into the
  weekend, with some low rain chances in various parts of the area
  during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

This afternoon, an upper level ridge remains centered across the
Desert Southwest, with a weak upper level trough across northern
portions of Texas. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to develop across the area this afternoon. The main
concern will be locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds. Most
of this activity will dissipate by early evening. Expect overnight
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The aforementioned upper level ridge will shift toward North Texas
and Oklahoma on Thursday. This will result in hotter and drier
conditiions across the area. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible across our southeast counties Thursday afternoon, but
overall expect mainly dry conditions. Highs will be hottest across
the Big Country where temperatures in the upper 90s to around 102
are forecast. Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

The upper level ridge will become elongated and extend from the
Gulf Coast northwest to Missouri Friday into Saturday. Friday
looks seasonably hot and dry with mostly clear skies. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees in the northern
half of our area, and in the lower to mid 90s for the southern
half. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Saturday afternoon and early evening, mainly south of
an Ozona to Brownwood line. This will be when a weak disturbance
aloft may move north into our area around the back side of the
aforementioned ridge. With some increase in cloud cover, expect
highs Saturday to be a few degrees lower than Friday.

The upper level ridge is forecast to be centered over southern
portions of the Midwest Sunday, and to expand west across the
central/southern Plains into Colorado on Monday. This will be our
primary weather influence on those days, although the possibility
of a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out during
the afternoon hours. Daily highs are expected to be mostly in the
mid to upper 90s in our area.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level ridge will shift to the
west and become repositioned over the Four Corners region into the
Rockies. This will place our area under north or north-northeast
flow aloft. This could allow a couple of disturbances aloft to move
south over the area and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms.
At this time we have low to medium (20-40) PoPs for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the next 24
hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon at all sites except KABI, which may result
in brief gusty gusty winds and reduced visibilities due to heavy
rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74 100  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  72  97  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
Junction    71  95  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
Brownwood   71  96  74  96 /   0  10   0  10
Sweetwater  74 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       71  96  73  94 /  10  10   0  10
Brady       72  94  72  93 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...Daniels