734
FXUS64 KSJT 021102
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
602 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across southern
  potions of West Central Texas Saturday afternoon and evening.
  Locally heavy rainfall is the main concern.

- Showers and thunderstorms are also possible Sunday into Monday.
  Locally heavy rainfall is the main concern. A few strong to
  severe storms possible Sunday evening.

- Hot conditions expected to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to track east
across the Big Country early this morning. Expect this activity to
continue for the next hour or two, but the current thinking is that
we will see a downward trend in this activity through the morning
hours. The main concerns with these storms will be strong gusty
winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening, mainly across the southern half of the area,
in the vicinity of the remnant cold front. The main concern with any
storms that develop is locally heavy rainfall. Highs today will
generally be below normal, in the low to mid 90s across most of the
area, with upper 90s across the I-10 corridor. Most of the shower
and thunderstorm activity should dissipate by early evening.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Rain chances continue to increase for Sunday and Sunday evening
across the area, as northwest flow becomes established across the
Southern Plains. Models are showing 2 rounds of convection
possible, the first will be the convection trying to slide south
into the area Sunday morning. Latest HRRR shows some of the
activity reaching as far south as I-20 around Abilene after
sunrise Sunday morning. Most of the CAMs show the next round of
convection developing across the South Plains Sunday afternoon and
making a hard run into the Big Country late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. With this convection coming closer to max heating
and with better instability to work with, this round may be the
stronger and more widespread area of convection. POPs have been
bumped up some for this time period and this will need to be
bumped up some more if the trend continues.

Upper level ridge is expected to expand in size starting on
Monday, even if the center itself stays over New Mexico. This
should cut off the rain chances and allow temperature to inch
higher again. As long as the center of the high doesn`t come
farther east, may be able to keep highs in the 95-103 range for
much of next week. If the center of the high does move farther
east into Texas, then highs will need to come up some as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly at
KJCT and KSOA, so have included a mention of thunder. Expect winds
to remain light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  72  98  71 /  10   0  30  40
San Angelo  95  72  99  72 /  20  10  10  30
Junction    94  71  98  74 /  40  10  10  20
Brownwood   93  72  96  72 /  20   0  20  30
Sweetwater  94  73 101  71 /  10  10  30  30
Ozona       94  71  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
Brady       92  72  95  72 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Daniels