537
FXUS64 KSJT 011150
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
650 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
  evening, mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo to Ozona line.

- Hotter temperatures for today and Monday.

- Low to medium chance (30%-60%) for showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday next week through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

With upper level ridging and warm mid level temperatures remaining
over the area today, we will see another hot day, with mostly
sunny skies, and south winds. Early in the morning, we will likely
see another round of at least patchy low clouds, mainly south of
I-20. These clouds should clear out by mid/late morning as
temperatures quickly warm up. Highs will range from the lower 90s
in our southeastern counties to near 100 degrees in the Big
Country which will be closer to the low level thermal ridge axis.
Persistence will be the rule for Monday night, with light
south/southeasterly winds, potential for low clouds late, and lows
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A weak upper-level ridge will build in across Texas for Monday
night and Tuesday, which will lead to another day of hot and humid
conditions. However, models suggest this ridge will be influenced
by shortwaves embedded within the upper-level flow. Although the
airmass will be mostly capped, this would allow some opportunities
for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop Tuesday evening.
The ridge axis will start to shift east and break down Tuesday
night through Wednesday as a deepening trough digs southward into
Baja California. This feature will eject a series of shortwave
troughs into northwest Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. The
airmass for both days will be quite humid and unstable with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, CAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg and
PWATs of 1.5-1.7 inches. While widespread rain is not expected,
chances for scattered thunderstorms will substantially increase
across the area during each afternoon and evening. Any storms
could produce locally heavy rainfall due to the moist airmass and
instability. Currently WPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk for heavy
rainfall across west central Texas on Wednesday with just a
Marginal Risk on Thursday.

The region should remain in a fairly active pattern for Friday
through Sunday as models show the main upper trough over Baja
California lifting northeastward into the Texas Panhandle during
this time. This will lead to more chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms for both days with locally heavy rain being the
main concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings will affect the KJCT, KSOA, and
KBBD sites early this morning, and could affect the KSJT site
briefly as well. Will start these sites with prevailing MVFR
ceilings or at least a TEMPO group. These clouds will scatter out
by mid/late morning, giving way to VFR conditions through the rest
of the day and into the evening. Light and variable or
south/southeasterly winds this morning will increase out of the
south by late morning to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  72  93  71 /   0   0  10  40
San Angelo  94  71  91  69 /   0   0  10  50
Junction    94  70  92  68 /   0   0  10  30
Brownwood   93  71  92  70 /   0   0  10  30
Sweetwater  97  72  95  70 /   0   0  10  50
Ozona       92  70  91  69 /   0  10   0  50
Brady       92  70  90  69 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99