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FXUS64 KSJT 222314
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
614 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening, especially the northern one half of the area.

- Strong to severe storms possible Sunday into Sunday night,
  especially in the Big Country.

- Unsettled pattern in the early to middle parts of next week,
  with chances of showers and thunderstorms along with
  considerably cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The current surface map early this afternoon has an outflow boundary
just south of the Red River and a dryline well west of our area.
Also, a cluster of thunderstorms over north Texas, north of the
DFW metroplex. The entire area is the warm sector with moderate
to locally strong instability and decent vertical wind shear. The
Hi-Res models are showing convection developing(isolated to
scattered thunderstorms) across the eastern South Plains and
eastern Permian Basin with other storms across north Texas.
During the late afternoon(4 to 7 PM), A few supercells with very
large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado are possible
north of a Sweetwater to Coleman to Brownwood line. During the
evening the storms will congeal into clusters/line across the Big
Country and Heartland and move east with damaging winds becoming
more favorable along with some hail. Further south, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening,
especially north of I-10. A few storms may be severe with large
hail and damaging winds. Most of the convection will move east
and southeast out the area by 06Z with quiet weather late tonight.

For Friday, the morning looks quiet across the area. Expect isolated
to widely scattered storms to fire to our west and northwest of
our area during the late afternoon(4 to 6 PM). An isolated storm
is possible with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards
across the northwest part of the area. Most of the convection will
occur Friday evening, start of the long term. Expect hot
temperatures again with highs in the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in parts of
West Texas along a dryline late Friday afternoon. A few of these
storms may move into our far western and northwestern counties
Friday night before dissipating. A shortwave upper ridge will be
over our area Saturday, and will shift east of our area by Sunday.
Isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms may develop on the
dryline in West Texas. These should stay mostly west of our area,
but one or two of storms may move into our far northwestern counties
early Saturday night before dissipating. Temperatures will be above
normal for our area Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will be the
hottest day with afternoon highs in the upper 90s to 102 degrees.
Our area will have increased/breezy south winds as well, with lee
surface trough development to our west and a tightened pressure
gradient.

An upper trough will move east across the central and southern
Rockies Sunday night, and into the central and southern Plains on
Monday. Our area will be under southwest flow aloft ahead of this
trough on Sunday. With the possibility of an embedded disturbance
moving into the area ahead of the main trough, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Our northern counties will have a possibility of severe storms
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. Our northern and eastern counties look to be
the most favored with the higher PoPs. A cold front associated with
the main trough will move south across our area on Monday. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday, with
the highest PoPs across the eastern half of our area. Uncertain with
the specifics on temperatures Monday, but our northern counties will
be much cooler behind the front. At this time, we have highs ranging
from the mid/upper 70s in the northern Big Country, to lower 90s
along/south of the I-10 corridor.

The pattern looks unsettled for our area Tuesday into Thursday. Will
have continued chances for showers and thunderstorms, with periodic
upper level disturbances moving over the area. With increased cloud
cover, temperatures will be cooler area wide and below normal. At
this time, have daily highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday, and in the lower to mid 80s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Scattered convection continues to develop but remains well away
from area terminals at this time. Will continue to monitor latest
radar trends and update as needed, but initial forecast will be
the continue the prob30 mentions at the terminals most likely to
be affected by one of the storms. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions
will prevail. Winds will be variable and gusty at times near the
storms, but overall should remain mostly out of the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     66  95  74  99 /  50   0  10   0
San Angelo  66  97  71 101 /  30   0   0   0
Junction    65  96  69  99 /  40   0   0   0
Brownwood   65  95  71  99 /  50   0   0   0
Sweetwater  67  96  74 101 /  40  10  10   0
Ozona       67  94  71  96 /  30   0   0   0
Brady       66  94  71  98 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07