386
FXUS64 KSJT 020759
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
159 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms by mid week,
  increasing to medium to high chance by late week.

- An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible on
  Wednesday evening and again on Friday afternoon and evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 149 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A weak cold front will stall in the Big Country along I-20 today,
bringing slightly cooler temperatures with highs the 70s. To the
south, low clouds will again move north into the Concho Valley and
Heartland this morning, dissipating around noon with surface
heating. Highs to the south of the Big Country will be mainly in
the lower 80s.

Tonight, low level moisture will continue to move north with
stratus developing by morning. Southerly winds will be gradually
increasing as a lee trough develops West Texas and Panhandle. Low
temperature will be mild, from 55 to 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1231 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

On Wednesday, a low pressure system develops across the Plains
and swings another cold front across our area. The frontal
boundary and passing disturbance aloft will be enough to support
some thunderstorms across the region. In fact, the Storm
Prediction Center has outlooked portions of our area for
potentially seeing severe weather on Wednesday into Thursday
morning. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with large
hail (1" diameter) and damaging winds (60-70 MPH) are the main
hazards that are possible. A much broader disturbance subsequently
develops across the southwestern U.S. and may send several
embedded disturbances across our area. A more unsettled pattern
will result with medium (40-60%) rain chances running through next
weekend. Friday evening and Friday night is also outlooked for
potentially seeing isolated strong to severe thunderstorms as
well. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards.
Overall, model agreement continues to be seen regarding this
unsettled pattern, and confidence is increasing regarding the rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions tonight will begin to deteriorate during the
overnight period to MVFR to IFR ceilings across all terminals
through Monday morning. Ceilings are expected to start falling to
MVFR/IFR levels as early as 07Z across KABI, and around 10Z across
the remaining terminals. Lower ceilings are expected through the
later part of Monday morning and potentially into the early
afternoon hours. There is also a chance for some patchy fog to
develop across all terminals given the lingering low-level
moisture across the area. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR
conditions between 18Z and 20Z Monday. Generally light southerly
winds are expected through tonight and into early tomorrow
morning, then increasing from the south again by Monday afternoon.
There is a wind shift expected across KABI due to the front,
switching to north to northeasterly Monday morning and to east to
southeasterly by the late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78  58  87  60 /  10   0  10  10
San Angelo  83  57  87  60 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    84  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   82  55  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  76  59  87  60 /   0   0  10  10
Ozona       80  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       83  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TP