876
FXUS64 KSJT 231116
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
616 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and warmer for the upcoming weekend.

- Rain chances return to West Central Texas by the middle of next
  week. Low to medium chances (20-40%) of greater than an inch of
  rain for the middle to latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Continue to see even less shower and thunderstorm coverage each
day and today looks to be the same. CAMs show some very spotty
activity across the southeast half of the area, but given the
extremely limited coverage (both spatially and length of time)
will hold off on mentioning any POPs for most areas today.
Otherwise, more of the same for temperatures. Center of the upper
level high remains well west of the area with northeast flow aloft
over West Central Texas. This keeps temperatures from climbing
much above normal with highs again in the low to mid 90s today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...Wetter and Cooler Than Normal Conditions Next Week...

A strengthening upper-level low over the Great Lakes and eastern
Canada will dig southward into the eastern third of the country on
Sunday and into Monday. The ridge that was over the western US will
shift southeastward over Texas and break down on Monday.  Meanwhile,
models show a surface cold front will move southward through the
central Plains Monday and stall over central Texas Tuesday into
Wednesday. This front, combined with upper-level impulses in the
northwest flow aloft, will increase chances for rain over much of
west central Texas for midweek and result in cooler than normal
temperatures. While models have come into better agreement on
frontal location and timing, the amount of moisture is still in
question, which would affect the coverage and duration of rainfall.
At this point, DESI probabilities show low to medium chances for at
least an inch of rainfall Tuesday through Thursday with additional
chances for rain on Friday.  Ensemble PWAT anomalies do not look
particularly high during this time period, so the nature of it could
be fairly showery.  However, the next couple of days should start to
reveal some better details on how this system will set up for the
middle to later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Patchy mid level clouds continue to stream across the southern
terminals early this morning, with a few showers and storms south
of the area. Overall though, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail across West Central Texas terminals through Sunday
morning. Light east to northeast winds will continue and will gust
to around 15kts at times during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  70  94  72 /   0   0  10   0
San Angelo  93  68  94  69 /   0   0  10   0
Junction    92  66  94  67 /  10   0  10   0
Brownwood   94  68  94  69 /   0   0  10   0
Sweetwater  95  70  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
Ozona       91  66  94  69 /  10   0  10   0
Brady       90  69  92  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...07