654
FXUS64 KSJT 050014 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
714 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Flood Watch has been allowed to expire at 7 PM. A few
  isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, but
  these are expected to be isolated in coverage. Flooding is
  ongoing across the area after the excessive rainfall from
  earlier today.


- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.

- Hotter temperatures are expected next week with minimal rain
  chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The Flood Watch has been allowed to expire at 7 PM. A few isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, but these are
expected to just be isolated in coverage. Flooding is ongoing
across the area after the excessive rainfall from earlier today.
We have areal flood warnings in effect to address the ongoing
flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The precipitation is now primarily confined to our southeastern
counties this afternoon as the MCV spins near San Saba and Mason
Counties. We have a few showers trying to go up near Brownwood and
the eastern Big Country as warm, moist air is pushed northward
around the low. Rain could continue in the Northwest Hill Country
and Heartland into the evening. Most likely additional rainfall
totals will be around 0.5 to 2 inches for this area, however there
is a small chance for totals to increase by another ~4 inches. High
res models are also hinting at some potential convection on the
backside of the MCV later this afternoon near the Concho Valley,
however confidence in this convection is lower than that in our
southeastern counties. Rain chances and coverage will decrease
around sunset. Due to the rainfall last night and today (14+ inches
in some areas), we have multiple rivers in moderate to major flood
stage, numerous impassable streets, and homes filled with water. Any
additional rainfall today will be very concerning, especially for
areas near rivers. People are urged to stay off of the roads unless
absolutely necessary.

There is potential for a few scattered storms to develop in the late
morning through the early evening across West Central Texas
tomorrow. The highest chance for storms will be across our
southeastern counties tomorrow. Moisture will still be readily
available, as PW values sit around 1.5 to 2.5 inches. WPC will be
introducing a slight risk of excessive rainfall into our area for
Saturday, as any additional heavy rainfall will lead to or enhance
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

On Sunday, although rain chances will be decreasing, there is
still a chance for isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms for the entire area. However,
not all locations will actually see rainfall, and rainfall amounts
will be nowhere near what we have seen the last 24 hours or so.

From Monday through the rest of next week, upper level ridging
will reestablish itself over the southwestern U. S. while
spreading east into Texas as well. This will cause a drying and
warming trend across west central Texas through the end of next
week. Highs will warm into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees by next
Friday, and no rain is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A degradation to MVFR/IFR conditions is expected by early
Saturday morning, as low cloud cover redevelops over the area.
Cloud cover is expected to linger into late Sunday morning, but
ceilings should climb above 3000ft in the late morning and early
afternoon. South to southeast winds are expected tonight into
Sunday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible, but these
should be isolated in coverage tonight. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  88  72  85 /  20  20  20  40
San Angelo  71  91  71  86 /  20  20  20  40
Junction    71  88  70  85 /  20  40  20  30
Brownwood   72  83  70  85 /  30  30  20  30
Sweetwater  72  91  72  88 /  10  10  10  40
Ozona       71  90  70  85 /  20  10  10  30
Brady       70  83  70  84 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19