438
FXUS64 KSJT 050842
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
242 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record, or near record, high temperatures are anticipated at
  Abilene and San Angelo for much of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Stationary front continues across West Central Texas early this
morning, draped from south of San Angelo to just north of Brady.
North of the front, temperatures holding in the 40s and even some
upper 30s north of Abilene. South of the front, temperatures are
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low clouds and fog developing across
the area on satellite imagery and this will continue to expand in
coverage through the morning hours. So far, areas of fog that have
developed have stayed limited but will need to keep an eye on
conditions from Abilene north and east across the Big Country
where lower visibilities are expected to develop before sunrise.
Will monitor conditions and if needed can update to add a dense
fog advisory later today.

Will rely heavily on the short term hi-res models for today, with
most of them showing a slow drift of the eventual warm front
today to north of Abilene, although perhaps not clearing Haskell
and Throckmorton until nearly sunset. The expanding low clouds
will limit mixing and slow the warm front progress down, and also
keep temperatures in check for much of the morning. May be well
into the afternoon before some sun makes it through and we see
temperatures from San Angelo to Abilene really begin to climb.
Will hold the northern Big Country in the 60s north of the front,
but 70s and a few 80s will finally develop for the afternoon
across the rest of the area.

Mild again tonight with the warm front pushing north of the area.
Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Very warm and dry conditions will continue Thursday through
Saturday, with our area under the influence from upper level
ridging in northern Mexico. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s,
with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Spring weather will come
abruptly to an end, however, as we head into next week. A strong
cold front is forecast to move into the area Saturday evening and
night. Ahead of the front, we may very well see a few spots
approach 90 degrees due to westerly downsloping flow. As mentioned
in the previous discussion, a faster frontal passage will have an
impact on highs especially in the Big Country. Much cooler
temperatures are expected on Monday and Tuesday behind the front.
NBM shows highs in the 50s for the most of the area. However,
probabilistic data indicates greater than a 50% chance of
temperatures staying in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday. Thus, the
temperature forecast for next week is still highly uncertain at
this point. Also, model guidance indicates the potential for light
precipitation developing behind the front on Monday and Tuesday.
For now will show 20-30% PoPs for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Stratus will return tonight as a warm front moves back north.
Ceiling may move in temporarily for a couple hours as MVFR but
fall to IFR towards morning across the terminals. Patchy light fog
may also affect the region late tonight/early Wednesday morning.
IFR ceilings otherwise rise to MVFR late morning and scatter out
or rise to VFR in the afternoon. Gusty south winds expected at
KABI and KSJT by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     80  61  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  79  59  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73  58  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   81  59  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  82  58  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       76  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       79  61  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...04