113
FXUS64 KSJT 201728
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly this
  afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. In
  addition, an isolated severe storm is possible along and north
  of Interstate 20.

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances Monday into the middle of
  next week. Cooler temperatures next week, but still slightly
  above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Early this morning, a large outflow boundary was tracking
southeast across the Big Country and western Concho Valley.
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue behind this boundary
primarily across the western portions of the Concho Valley.
Should see this activity weaken over the next couple of hours
but could affect the San Angelo area prior to weakening.

For the rest of today, models continue to show convective
re-development later this afternoon from the Big Country, south
into the Concho Valley and Heartland along the residual outflow
boundary. The main concern with any storms today will be locally
heavy rainfall, given PW values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches and
slow storm movement. This may lead to some localized flooding of
low lying spots and poor drainage areas. In addition, there is a
marginal risk for an isolated severe storm or two along and north
of Interstate 20, with the primarily threat being strong wind
gusts, although some marginally severe hail is also possible.
Showers and storms will drift south this evening, with a
decreasing trend expected overnight. As for temperatures, expect
afternoon highs in the mid and upper 90s, with overnight lows
tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A weakened/suppressed ridge aloft will be over the southern part of
Texas and the adjacent part of northeastern Mexico Monday into
Tuesday. Models hint at a possibility of a weak disturbance or two
moving around its northern periphery Monday and Tuesday. Trailing
portion of a cold front is forecast to move south into the Big
Country on Monday, and into the central part of our area Monday
night before stalling. With a combination of weak upper support,
surface frontal boundary and possible leftover outflow boundaries
from previous convection, much of our area has low to medium chances
(20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday and
into Tuesday night. A few strong storms will be possible in the
afternoon/early evening hours with localized downburst winds and
frequent lightning the primary hazards. The airmass will be moist
and with precipitable water values 1.4 to 1.8 inches, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be a
little cooler but still above normal for September 21-22. For the
most part expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s Monday and
upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday. Lows will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Will be monitoring subsequent model trends for the
possibility of highs to be a little cooler than currently forecast
in the Big Country behind the front.

The upper high is forecast to strengthen a little and be centered
over the Texas coast Wednesday and Thursday into Friday. By
Saturday, the high is progged to be centered over Deep South Texas.
While an isolated shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly in
our northwest and northern counties, the higher rain chances are
expected to be in West Texas toward the Red River with mostly dry
conditions for our area. Highs are expected to be several degrees
above normal in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the next 24 hours
while winds remain below 12 knots. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the area this
afternoon and evening. Have included PROB30 groups at all sites,
given the poissibility of thunder at any of the sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  95  70  89 /  20  40  60  60
San Angelo  70  96  68  90 /  30  30  50  60
Junction    69  95  68  93 /  50  20  40  30
Brownwood   68  95  68  91 /  40  50  40  50
Sweetwater  72  95  68  88 /  20  40  50  70
Ozona       69  94  68  89 /  20  20  40  30
Brady       69  93  69  90 /  60  40  40  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...Daniels