230
FXUS64 KSJT 011750
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible across much of West
  Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall
  is the main concern.

- Showers and thunderstorms are also possible Saturday into
  Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is the main concern.

- Warmer conditions expected to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A weak cold front/outflow boundary has advanced south into the
Concho Valley. Expect the boundary to continue to slowly move south
this morning and then stall. Higher moisture is filtering in behind
the front, with dewpoints increasing to the north of the front.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop in the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon and early
evening. Although isolated storms are possible north and south of
the front, the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
will likely occur near the front. Precipitable water values will
increase to 1.6 to 2 inches across much of the area, so locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. Highs on Friday will be several
degrees cooler than highs on Thursday. Expect highs in the low to
mid 90s for most locations. Shower and thunderstorms activity is
quickly forecast do decrease during the evening hours, with
generally dry conditions after midnight. Overnight lows will be in
the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For Saturday, there is an outside potential for a few showers  in
the morning...if a storm complex develops Friday night in the
Panhandle, then weakens as it approaches the northern Big Country.
At this time, however, will keep rain chances out.  The better
potential Saturday, however, will be in the afternoon with daytime
heating. Coverage will likely be more isolated, however, as high
pressure builds in from the west. The best showers and thunderstorms
chances (30 to 40 percent) will be be from Junction and Menard to
Brady and Saba Saba. The main hazards from storms will be locally
heavy rainfall, due to a tropical like environment and slow
movement. Precipital water values continue to be high, around 1.5
inch.

With weak northwest to north flow aloft continuing, models continue
to indicate another complex of storms moving into the region from
the Panhandle Sunday night, with the best potential in the Big
Country. Only a few storms are indicated Monday, mainly in extreme
eastern sections from Brownwood to Mason and Saba Saba.

The main concern next week otherwise will be increasing temperatures
as high pressure aloft builds in. Highs in the Big Country and
Concho Valley forecast rise to 99 to 103 Sunday into Friday. Heat
indices will be close to or a degree above temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

VFR conditions will continue at the terminals through the next 24
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon and persist into the evening before dissipating.
Otherwise, light winds will continue through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  95  73  99 /  20  10   0  20
San Angelo  72  94  73  99 /  20  20   0  10
Junction    72  95  71  98 /  20  30  10  10
Brownwood   72  93  71  96 /  20  20   0  20
Sweetwater  70  96  73 101 /  10  10   0  20
Ozona       72  94  71  98 /  20  20   0  10
Brady       72  93  72  96 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...42