695
FXUS64 KSJT 200419
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1119 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk for severe storms through tonight

- Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
  through tonight.

- Dry weather expected early next week, with rain chances
  returning by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into
tonight...

Early this afternoon, a surface cold front remains nearly stationary
and extends from near Midland, northeast to just south of Abilene
and then into north central Texas. A dryline extended south of the
front across West Texas into northern Mexico. Overall thinking
has not changed much, with the latest CAMs still showing strong
storms developing along and north of the frontal boundary by mid
to late afternoon, with additional storms developing near the
triple point to our west/southwest by early evening. Other storms
are possible in the warm sector south of the front and east of
the dryline this afternoon and early evening but should be more
isolated. Strong deep layer shear, combined with steep mid level
lapse rates will support large to very large hail (2 inches or
greater) with any storms that develop. Later this evening, a
strong low level jet will develop, which will enhance low level
shear and may support a few tornadoes with any surface based
storms and those that remain intact along the frontal boundary.

By late this evening, additional thunderstorm development is
expected to our west, along a Pacific front. These storms are
expected to form into a squall line, which will quickly move east
across the area overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the primary threat, although a tornado or two is also possible.
The other concern will be heavy rainfall and some flooding threat.
The greatest threat for flooding will be across the Big Country,
where training of cells is likely along the front into the evening
hours, followed by additional heavy rainfall associated with the
squall line late tonight. Showers and storms are expected to end
from west to east late tonight, with most of the activity east of
the forecast area by daybreak. Easter Sunday looks rather
pleasant, as drier air filters into the region, with clearing
skies and plenty of sunshine by afternoon. Highs will range from
the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the upper 70s along the
I-10 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...Chance of thunderstorms each day next week, beginning Tuesday...

Winds shift back south Monday, with low level moisture and strong
instability returning by Tuesday (GFS Mucape rise into the
2000-3000 J/KG range.) Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop
each day, from Tuesday through Thursday, as upper disturbances
move over in southwest flow aloft. The dryline itself remains well
west of the region in the Permian Basin and against the mountains
in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, but it may be source of storm
initiation in the afternoon, with storms moving east and
northeast over the region. With fairly strong instability, some
storms could be severe. On Thursday night and Friday a weak cold
front may move into the region, decreasing instability somewhat,
but a few showers and thunderstorms may still develop. Highs will
range mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s with storms and cloud
cover next week. The coolest morning will be Monday with lows in
the mid and upper 40s, with upper 50s to lower 60s mid and late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

North-to-south line of storms will push eastward across all
terminals over the next 4-6 hours with very strong wind gusts.
Once the line passes, ceilings should improve around sunrise. Some
increase in northwest winds should occur during the day before
decreasing by late evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75  51  72  50 /  80  90   0   0
San Angelo  82  50  75  48 /  40  90   0   0
Junction    83  54  78  48 /  50  80  10   0
Brownwood   80  54  75  48 /  70  90  10   0
Sweetwater  74  49  72  51 /  80 100   0   0
Ozona       81  51  75  50 /  30  90   0   0
Brady       81  54  74  50 /  60  90  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SK