821
FXUS64 KSJT 171055
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
555 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and this
 evening. The greatest threat will be east of a Sweetwater to
 Ozona line.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are again
  possible Sunday and Monday. Strong to severe storms will be
  possible in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. A dryline
is forecast to advance east into our central counties this
afternoon. A very unstable atmosphere is forecast to develop this
afternoon ahead of the dryline as temperatures climb into the 90s.
Exactly how far east the dryline advances will determine where
convection develops this afternoon. Most of the CAMs have the
dryline advancing to near an Ozona to San Angelo to Sweetwater
line, before retreating back to the west this evening. If the
dryline is a bit farther west, expect higher coverage at locations
like San Angelo. If the dryline ends up advancing a bit farther
east, expect mainly dry conditions across our western counties,
including San Angelo. The main concerns with the storms will be
large to very large hail and damaging winds, although a tornado
cannot be ruled out. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into
the evening hours, mainly across our eastern counties. As the
dryline retreats to the west this evening, there is a slight
chance that a few storms develop farther west along the retreating
dryline (similar to the NAM Nest solution). Expect overnight lows
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Main upper level trough will continue to progress only very slowly
across the Southern Plains, allowing the dryline to slosh back
and forth across West Central Texas each day. Air mass ahead of
the dryline will remain very unstable, with storms developing
ahead of the dryline each afternoon as it progresses east. And
possibly even back to the west some each evening/night as the
dryline retreats once again. For Sunday afternoon, main threat
will be across the Heartland north into the eastern Big Country
based on expected dryline position by mid/late afternoon. CAPE
values will be excessive (4500+) so very large hail will be the
main threat, although all threats will be possible.

Both the GFS and the NAMNEST show a cluster of storms
redeveloping across the Big Country and Concho Valley Sunday night
and will continue to keep a mention of scattered storms in the
forecast.

Dryline looks like it makes a little better progress Monday
afternoon and makes it through much of the area so will limit POPs
to mainly the far eastern counties for Monday afternoon. Weak cold
front clear the low level moisture out of the area for mid/late
week and produces only minimal storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at
KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, so have included PROB30 groups. Any mention
of thunder was left out of KSJT and KABI due to less confidence.
Any thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain, hail, and strong
gusty winds. VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24
hours, except within any thunderstorms. Light and variable winds
will become south to southwest at 8 to 12 knots by late morning or
early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  70  95  70 /  30  10  30  30
San Angelo  97  70  97  68 /  30  10  20  30
Junction    99  68  97  70 /  30  20  20  10
Brownwood   95  68  93  68 /  40  20  40  30
Sweetwater  95  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  30
Ozona       95  70  95  70 /  20  10  10  20
Brady       96  69  95  70 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Daniels