018
FXUS64 KSJT 181943
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
243 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe storms this evening through Saturday
  night.

- Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
  Saturday night.

- Dry weather expected early next week, with rain chances
  returning by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...Slight risk of Severe storms tonight in the Big Country/Concho
Valley and slight risk Saturday across all of West Central Texas...

A dryline will move along an Ozona to San Angelo to Abilene line
this evening. Short range models indicate scattered thunderstorms
developing mainly after 7 PM from the Northern Concho Valley
(Sterling City/Robert Lee) north to Sweetwater and Roby, then moving
northeast to Abilene, Haskell and Throckmorton as an upper
disturbance moves over. Considerable mid and upper level cloudiness
may limit heating this afternoon, but moisture and instability had
returned with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s, along with
deep layer shear (0-6KM bulk shear was greater than 50 KTS). Large
hail and damaging winds will be possible if storms develop, along
with hail 2-3 inch diameter. SPC also outlined a 2 percent (low
potential) for a tornado. A second band of scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop along the dryline toward/after midnight
and move eastward overnight across West Central Texas into Saturday
morning, as another disturbance moves aloft.

A slight risk of severe storms expands across all of West Central
Texas Saturday. While there may be scattered storms in the morning,
with heating, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the
afternoon. A weak cold front/dry line triple point may develop in
the NW Concho Valley/western Big Country and focus development in
the afternoon, with a stronger cold front/pacific cold front moving
through later in the night. Deep layer shear and strong instability
will again be available for severe storm development. Again hail 2
to 3 inch diameter possible. SPC increases the tornado potential to
5 percent (more of a medium potential) Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Thunderstorm chances will persist and are expected to increase
in coverage across the area Saturday evening and overnight, as
large-scale ascent increases with the upper trough entering west
Texas. Strong to severe storms should be ongoing early Saturday
evening and focused along and just north of a surface cold front
that will be draped across the area. Latest CAMs show the front
as far south as the northern Concho Valley by early evening, with
most of the convection along and north of the front across the
Big Country. Elevated storms north of the boundary will be
capable of producing large to very large hail due to steep lapse
rates. Although CAMs show most of the evening activity along and
north of the front, any storms that develop in the warm sector
south of the front and east of a developing dryline to our
southwest will likely be severe, with large to very large hail
possible. In addition, an isolated tornado is also possible,
especially with any storms that are able to latch onto the front.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage during
the late evening and overnight hours Saturday, as the upper
trough continues east and the cold front shifts south. Storms are
expected to become more linear by this time and pose both a hail
and wind threat as the line moves east across the area. In
addition to the severe potential, heavy rainfall is possible
during the evening and overnight hours, which may lead to some
flooding concerns. The greatest flooding threat will be across the
Big Country and northern Heartland counties where the greater
coverage of storms is expected. Showers and storms are expected to
be east of the area by daybreak Easter morning, with decreasing
clouds and pleasant temperatures by afternoon, with highs in the
70s.

Dry and pleasant weather is expected on Monday, with highs mainly
in the lower 80s. Unsettled weather returns by mid to late week,
as southwest flow aloft develops and a series of disturbances
moves across the area. Rain chances remain in the forecast Tuesday
night through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Gusty south winds this afternoon will weaken this evening. Added
a 30 percent prob for thunderstorms at KABI this evening, where a
strong or severe storm is also possible. An isolated storm also
possible at KSJT this evening, but left out due low
coverage/potential. Added a 30 percent prob for thunderstorm 6Z
to 14Z over most the terminals, as short range models indicated
scattered showers/thunderstorms developing from Sonora to San
Angelo to Abilene, then moving east. Otherwise MVFR ceilings will
developing at KJCT and KBBD after 6Z and continuing into mid
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  79  54  73 /  50  80 100  10
San Angelo  63  85  51  76 /  60  60  90  10
Junction    63  85  53  79 /  70  50  90  30
Brownwood   63  82  54  77 /  70  80 100  30
Sweetwater  64  78  52  72 /  40  70  90  10
Ozona       63  83  51  77 /  60  40  90  10
Brady       64  82  55  75 /  70  60  90  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04