397
FXUS64 KSJT 171839 CCA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
137 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry weather will persist through this week and into the
  beginning of next week.

- Daily highs across much of the area will be at or above 100
  degrees.

- Those working or spending time outside need to keep heat safety
  precautions in mind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Our dominant weather feature in the short term is an upper level
ridge extending from the lower Mississippi Valley northwest across
North Texas, and into the Southwest. With 850mb temperatures on an
increasing trend, our area is having an uptick in temperatures today
and Tuesday. While on the marginal side, we have issued a Heat
Advisory for portions of the Big Country north and northeast of
Abilene for this afternoon and early evening (Haskell, Throckmorton,
Jones and Shackelford Counties). Highs and/or heat index values are
expected to be near 105 in that area.

Skies will be generally clear tonight and sunny on Tuesday. Lows
tonight will be in the 70s. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper
90s/near 100 in our southern counties, to around 105 in most of the
Big Country. Winds tonight will be from the southeast to south at
5-10 mph. Winds on Tuesday will be 5-10 mph, from the south-southwest
in the morning and from the south-southeast in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The upper level high is forecast to be centered over the Four
Corners area Thursday and Friday and undergo some strengthening.
This will keep our temperatures above normal. Expecting highs to be
in upper 90s/near 100 in our southern counties, 100-105 in the
Concho Valley, and 104-106 across most of the Big Country. There is
potential for temperatures to be even a little hotter during the
weekend into the early part of next week, when the aforementioned
high is progged to shift southeast and be centered closer to our
area. Medium range models have some differences on where the high
will be centered (New Mexico vs. West Texas), but it will remain our
dominant weather influence. Having mentioned this, for the area east
of a Brownwood to Junction line, seeing a few hints in some of the
medium range model data for a low possibility of isolated late
afternoon and early evening convection Friday through Sunday. This
would be where a weak disturbance or two may move around the eastern
and southeastern periphery of the upper high. Confidence at this
time, however, is too low to include a mentionable PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours across all
terminals. Southerly winds today will become light and variable by
this evening and through the overnight period into Tuesday
morning. Winds will pick back up from the south to southwest
around 10 knots late Tuesday morning generally across KABI and
KSJT. Other terminals are expected to remain light and variable
through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78 104  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  73 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    71 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   73 103  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  76 104  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       71  98  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Haskell-Jones-
Shackelford-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...TP