586
FXUS64 KSJT 170509
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1209 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and hot conditions will continue through the end of this
  week.

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return late Sunday into
  early next week, with daily highs less hot but more likely
  staying above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Skies were mostly clear across west central Texas this morning with
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.  The Dry River fire was
still burning west of Sonora and producing areas of smoke for
western Sutton and Schleicher counties.  At the upper levels, a
600dam ridge was located over the Lower Mississippi Valley.  At the
surface, a frontal boundary that was over western Oklahoma and the
Texas Panhandle had lifted northward into Kansas.  The upper ridge
looks to move westward today and tonight and become centered over
the Arklatex by Friday morning.  As a result, another unseasonably
hot and dry day is expected with high temperatures in the upper 90s
to around 100. Although the surface frontal boundary has lifted a
bit northward and the pressure gradient has relaxed somewhat, winds
should still increase today with gusts around 20 MPH this afternoon.
Overnight, winds are expected to diminish with lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A strong high pressure ridge currently sitting across the
southeastern U.S. will shift to the west. This will leave our area
closer to the center of the high pressure. As a result, hot and dry
conditions will continue through the end of the work week. By Sunday
and Monday, a couple of embedded disturbances aloft will cruise
through the region. This will act to weaken the ridge and allow for
a medium chance (30-50%) for rain. A weak cold frontal boundary may
be just strong enough to drop temperatures a few degrees early next
weeks. Highs appear to be in the lower 90s during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Some
smoke may cause visibilities to drop to around 5SM near Sonora through
sunrise. Otherwise, southeast winds should be a bit lower than
yesterday, but could still gust to 20KT at times this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  99  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    98  71  96  69 /   0  10   0   0
Brownwood   98  72  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 100  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       95  71  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       96  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SK