246
FXUS64 KSJT 161904
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
104 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday, peaking Thursday, before
  decreasing Friday. There`s a marginal to slight risk for
  excessive rainfall and flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Warm and dry conditions under Upper-level ridging will persist
across West Central Texas through the start of the work week, with
another round of above normal, and potentially record breaking high
temperatures expected Today. High temperatures along and south of
I-10 today are expected to reach into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Whereas, north of I-10 with the next weak cold front stalling over
the Big Country today, temperatures are expected to remain
slightly cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The daily record high
temperature for November 16th at Abilene is 86, and 87 for San
Angelo. Overnight lows will be cool, but well above seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 50s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Rain chances are still looking good for the middle of next week. The
upper level trough will sit over Baja California on Wednesday,
progressing towards our area on Thursday. Ahead of the trough, we`ll
see large scale lift and increasing moisture throughout the column.
At the surface a cold front will move through Thursday into Friday.
Areas ahead and along the front will have the best chance for
precipitation, as moisture will be much higher. Rain chances will
begin early Wednesday, peak early Thursday, and decrease by early
Friday. Heavy rainfall and flooding are concerns with this system.
PWAT values will be very high for this time of the year, sitting
around the 99th percentile for late Wednesday and Thursday. Most
likely rain amounts (25th to 75th percentile) are generally around
half an inch to 3 inches across the area. Models are hinting at the
potential for pockets of 4 to 5 inches, but the exact location of
the heaviest rainfall is still very uncertain. We`ll get a better
idea of rainfall amounts and locations once we get close enough
for the high res models. We`ll also need to keep an eye on the
potential for a few strong to severe storms with this activity.

Looking at temperatures, the very above normal highs will continue
for Tuesday and Wednesday. However, highs should remain a few
degrees shy of the records. Temperatures will be much closer to
normal for Thursday through the weekend as a surface high builds
into the area behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
Expect winds to remain light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     58  89  61  84 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  55  87  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    55  89  61  84 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   55  88  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  59  86  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       55  85  59  80 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       59  87  63  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...41