017
FXUS64 KSJT 200601
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
101 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1
  to 3 inches this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Strong
  winds of 50 to 60 mph also possible.

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the
  highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

We will remain under the same pattern today and tonight, with
weak northeast flow aloft between two upper level anticyclones.
Shortwave energy embedded within this northeast flow will move
into west central Texas this morning and afternoon. In addition,
a weak frontal boundary will drift south into the Big Country late
this morning. All this is expected to combine to create a very
similar outcome to yesterday, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop initially over the Big Country,
then move southwest during the day, affecting much of west central
Texas into the evening hours. Although most of the activity
should end by 9 PM, there is a chance for lingering activity later
into the overnight hours. As mentioned in the previous AFD,
precipitable water values are in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, so very
heavy downpours and local flooding will be possible, and we do
have a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the area. Also,
any of these storms will continue to be capable of producing
microbursts and wind gusts over 50 MPH, although most wind gusts
will remain sub-severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

West central Texas should remain on the southeast side of an upper-
level ridge over the Four Corners region for at least Thursday and
Friday.  Weak upper-level disturbances should rotate around the
periphery of this ridge over a persistent moist airmass.  This means
that chances for afternoon popcorn-style showers and thunderstorms
should continue for Thursday and Friday, mainly for southern
counties. High temperatures will continue to be around normal, or
generally in the mid to upper 90s each day.

The pattern will begin to shift for Saturday and Sunday as models
show a strengthening upper-level low over the Great Lakes and
eastern Canada.  This should bring a drier airmass with northerly
mid-level winds into the area and effectively shut off rain chances
for this weekend.  Looking further ahead, models are in overall
agreement of this feature elongating and swinging southward into the
eastern and central US by Sunday evening.  If this comes to
fruition, it would push a surface cold front and a strong surface
high pressure area through the central Plains and Mississippi Valley
by Monday.  Depending on how far south this front progresses, there
is some potential for heavy rain and cooler than normal temperatures
for early next week.  For now, this situation will be monitored
closely over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours across
the area with light east to northeast winds. However, there will
again be a chance for scattered TSRA from late morning into the
evening hours that could produce short periods of MVFR conditions.
These storms will be possible across the entire area, so will keep
the Prob30 groups going in all TAFs for tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  72  96  72 /  40  20  20  10
San Angelo  95  71  95  70 /  40  30  40  10
Junction    98  70  95  69 /  40  30  60  30
Brownwood   96  71  95  71 /  50  30  40  10
Sweetwater  96  72  97  71 /  40  20  20  10
Ozona       95  69  94  68 /  40  30  60  20
Brady       95  71  93  71 /  40  30  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...20