709
FXUS64 KSJT 170601
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1201 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday, peaking Thursday, before
  decreasing Friday. There`s a marginal to slight risk for
  excessive rainfall and flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure overhead will result in continued hot and dry
conditions for the remainder of today and tomorrow. In fact, as of
1:50 PM CST, San Angelo hit 88 degrees so far. This is hotter
than the record high of 87 for San Angelo (Mathis Field).
Therefore, we have seen record breaking heat this afternoon
already. A weak cold front has stalled across portions of the Big
Country, which will keep temperatures a touch cooler across those
areas. Otherwise, another hot day is forecast for tomorrow with
highs in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

All eyes are on an anticipated pattern change for the middle to
latter half of the upcoming week.  Models consistently show a strong
upper-level trough that will dig into southern California late
Tuesday and progress eastward Wednesday and Thursday. Another warm
day is expected for Tuesday with southerly flow in place, even as
cloud cover increases ahead of the trough.  Mid to upper-level
moisture and instability will increase substantially by Wednesday.
Ensemble probabilities continue to show medium to high chances of
rain and thunderstorms for Wednesday (40-50%) and Thursday (70-90%).
Early returns from hi-res models are hinting at thunderstorms
developing Wednesday afternoon as an upper-level impulse ejects out
of the main trough.  For now, SPC shows a Marginal risk of severe
weather that day.  Rain chances continue to ramp up on Wednesday
through Thursday as models show a Pacific-based cold front pushing
into west central Texas.  However, models have slowed down the
system from earlier runs in the past couple of days. Forecast
rainfall amounts have increased as a result. In fact, there is a
medium chance for 1-1.5 inches of rain in 72 hours ending Friday
morning.  However, there are still several moving parts at play with
this system, and the rainfall amounts, timing, and convective
elements could still change quite a bit over the next couple of
days.  For now, WPC is carrying a Marginal to Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday into Thursday.  Models diverge on
the upper-level pattern a bit for the next system that could affect
the region this weekend. Early indications are that more rainfall
could occur, but this will depend quite a bit on how much the first
system evolves.  For now, we`ll stick with PoPs around 20% for
Saturday into next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 926 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light winds
will increase to 8 to 12 knots by late morning or early afternoon
Monday, then become light Monday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  61  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  87  58  83  61 /   0   0  10  20
Junction    89  61  84  60 /   0   0  10  10
Brownwood   89  60  84  60 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater  86  60  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       85  60  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
Brady       87  64  82  63 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...Daniels