950
FXUS64 KSJT 220527
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances Tuesday. Slightly cooler but
  still above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with hotter and well-
  above normal temperatures again by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Early this afternoon skies were sunny to partly cloudy with
temperatures in the mid 80s. At the upper levels, the flow was
quasi- zonal with a weak shortwave moving across Kansas and
Oklahoma. At the surface, a frontal boundary was moving southward
through the Big Country. This front will continue moving southward
this afternoon and early evening. Showers and storms should
develop along this front over the Concho Valley and Heartland this
afternoon. Any storms that develop could produce locally heavy
downpours and brief gusty winds, with occasional lightning before
dissipating late this evening. The front should continue moving
southward overnight and reach the I-10 corridor by Tuesday
morning. Elevated instability of around 2000 J/kg will exist
behind the front so another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop by the afternoon. PWAT values
will range from 1.5-1.8 inches, which could lead to pockets of
heavier rainfall, mainly south of I-20. Depending on where
stronger cells develop, rainfall amounts could range from just a
few hundredths to around an inch. Aside from the rainfall, high
temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s in a humid airmass.
However, depending on when rain and cloud cover develop, this
could hold down the temperatures a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

By later this week, the upper level ridge will re-establish
itself over the eastern half of Texas and strengthen. Although the
ridge will be centered over eastern Texas, the western side of
the ridge will extend into west-central Texas. Although we will
have some low end (20%) chances for precipitation along our
western CWA border Thursday into Saturday, the bulk of any showers
and storms are expected to affect areas from the Big Bend
northward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle region.
By this weekend, the ridge is expected to weaken again,
potentially bringing better rain chances back in the area early
next week. Temperatures will remain well above normal through this
time period with highs mainly in the 90s, and lows in the upper
60s to mid 70s. Normal highs and lows at this time are in the
mid/upper 80s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the area through around 02-03Z this evening. Not confident
enough to carry thunder at any particular TAF site but will
continue to monitor radar trends and amend as necessary. Another
round of scattered showers and storms is possible on Tuesday
afternoon. Will not mention thunder in this TAF package but may
need to introduce PROB30`s in the next set of TAFs. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  71  93  73 /  50  20  30  10
San Angelo  93  69  92  70 /  40  30  10  10
Junction    94  69  94  69 /  30  10  10  10
Brownwood   94  70  95  71 /  40  10  20   0
Sweetwater  90  69  91  71 /  50  30  30  10
Ozona       91  68  91  69 /  40  20  10  10
Brady       92  69  92  70 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42