628
FXUS64 KSJT 040716
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
216 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of West Central Texas
  along and south of i-20 until 7 PM this evening. However, the
  western Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau is not in
  the watch. Heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger cells,
  which may result in localized flooding.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The WV imagery early this morning is showing a slow moving/weak
disturbance across our area. Also, PW values are around record
values(2.2 to 2.4 inches) and deep moisture flux convergence over
the Heartland. For hydro warning purposes have a few Flash Flood
Warnings going for the Concho Valley and Heartland. The bottom
line, the near storm environment supports heavy rainfall and
flash flooding.

Will see a repeat today across mainly the eastern half of the area
where medium chances of rain exist. A few thunderstorms are
possible and the highest chance of flash flooding due to high
rainfall rates with any thunderstorms. The tropical
environment(very high PW values) is primed for heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding. Have extended the Flood Watch until 7 PM
this evening. However, have removed the western 1/3 of the Concho
Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau as the threat has pretty much
ended for this area. Keep up with the latest weather information
and have many ways to receive warnings. The weather looks more
quiet for tonight with only a few showers possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Rain chances will gradually decrease across West Central Texas
through the weekend, as the upper-level ridge shifts back westward
and winds aloft begin switching to a more drier northerly flow
pattern. Isolated or widely scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly diurnally driven, will still be possible this weekend.
With less cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will be warmer
than what our area is currently seeing, but still slightly below
normal for July. Expect highs to be mostly in the mid 80s to
mid 90s this weekend, with continued humid conditions.

Drier and Warmer temperatures are expected to kick off the work
week next week, as the upper-level high continues to build across
the area and center over the Four Corners area on Tuesday. Our
area will be on its eastern periphery of this system, but will
heavily influence the forecast for the area through much of next
week. Expect afternoon highs to start off in the lower to mid 90s
in the early to middle parts of the week, and then climb into the
mid 90s and into the triple digits by the end of the week. Little
to no rain chances are expected for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings through Friday morning at the terminals.
The ceiling will rise to mainly low end VFR by Friday afternoon.
Also, scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo to Junction
line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  72  88  72 /  60  10  30  20
San Angelo  86  71  90  72 /  60  10  20  10
Junction    82  70  87  70 /  70  20  30  10
Brownwood   80  72  85  71 /  70  20  30  20
Sweetwater  88  72  92  72 /  50  10  20  10
Ozona       85  70  89  70 /  40  20  10  10
Brady       80  70  84  70 /  70  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21