566
FXUS64 KSJT 141114
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
614 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot again today with highs near or above the 100 degree
  mark. Heat Advisory in Effect for portions of the Heartland and
  the Northwest Hill Country

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Another hot day across West Central Texas with forecast highs near
or above the 100 degree mark across the area. A handful of the
West Texas Mesonet sites hit 104 yesterday, and many others hit at
least 100. Models are showing temperatures near those same
temperatures (or even a couple degrees warmer across the Hill
Country). Not going to disagree too much with these forecast. Heat
Advisory was already in effect for the 5 southeast most counties
and will let that ride until sunset this evening.

Records will not likely be broken today at least. Record high at
Abilene is 105 (1960) while its 108 (2013) in San Angelo so both
of those records should be safe today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 451 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Relief from the recent heat will move into the area via a cold
frontal passage on Thursday. The biggest drop in temperatures will
be across the Big Country. However, highs will remain in the
upper 80s to mid 90s area wide.

Then, a disturbance aloft will move east across New Mexico and
into Texas during the Saturday and Sunday timeframe. This will
combine with a dryline, which will linger across our area through
the weekend. These two features may provide enough support for low
(20-30%) thunderstorm chances on Saturday. The models have reduced,
or backed off of, the rain chances on Sunday and the early part
of next week. We will keep an eye on any severe weather potential.
However, these thunderstorms appear to be below severe levels
given the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Generally, VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas
terminals through tonight. Some patchy elevated dust picked up
across West Texas yesterday afternoon will create some lower cigs
at times this morning, while a veil of high clouds streams across
much of the area as well. Otherwise, light south to southwest
winds this morning will shift to the west for the afternoon hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    100  71  89  68 /   0  10   0   0
San Angelo 101  68  93  66 /   0  10   0   0
Junction   105  71  98  68 /   0  10   0   0
Brownwood  102  70  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
Sweetwater 102  70  89  68 /   0  10   0   0
Ozona      101  69  92  68 /   0  10   0   0
Brady      104  72  95  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...07