415
FXUS64 KSJT 311137
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
637 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch is in effect through this afternoon.

- Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible overnight tonight and
  through Sunday as a weak cold front moves through.

- Medium chances of heavy rainfall for the Edwards Plateau and
  Hill Country on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Lingering light to moderate showers along the stalled from
continue this morning across portions of the Concho Valley and
Northern Edwards Plateau, diminishing in coverage into the mid
morning hours. The main impacts with these lingering storms will
be localized heavy rainfall that could potentially lead to
localized flooding, lightning, and breezy winds. There remains
some uncertainty in forecast with regards to shower and
thunderstorm redevelopment later this morning into tonight, as
models continue to struggle with the timing and placement of these
storms.

Some of the deterministic models and ensembles show more
widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
into tonight, whereas the CAMs are currently showing slightly
earlier development later this morning and less coverage mainly
south of the I-20 corridor. Either way, the flood watch will
remain in effect through this afternoon, and may need to be
extended into the tonight period depending on how the showers and
thunderstorms pan out this afternoon and evening. Temperatures
today will remain on the cooler side, low 80s to low 90s, given
the potential for widespread cloud cover and shower coverage
today. However, if conditions become less cloudy and there is less
shower coverage, temperatures could end up warmer today. Lows
tonight are expected to fall back into the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The frontal boundary that has been nearly stationary over the past
two days will push southward on Monday into south-central Texas.  A
drier airmass should move in behind the front and cause rain chances
to decrease from north to south on Monday.  By late afternoon, the
best chances for rain will be across the Edwards Plateau and the
Hill Country (40-50%) with much lower chances for the Concho Valley
(20-30%) and the Big Country (<20%).  Upper-level impulses embedded
in the northwest flow aloft will help enhance shower and
thunderstorm development across the Edwards Plateau during the
morning.  DESI probabilities show medium chances of 1-2 inches of
rainfall in this area during the day, so the Flood Watch currently
in effect may need to be extended for southern counties through
Monday. Otherwise, given mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain,
high temperatures could stay in the mid 80s, except for the Big
Country which will have the least cloud cover and could reach into
the low 90s.

For the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe drier conditions with
seasonal temperatures are expected for west central Texas as
northerly winds continue. Towards the end of the week, models show
an upper-level trough centered just north of the Great Lakes will
dip southward into the central and eastern US.  Another surface
frontal boundary looks to drop into Texas from the northeast by
Friday. Here, global models diverge as to what could result based on
varying factors, including how far south the front will go. The GFS
shows the remnants of yet-to-develop tropical depression moving in
from the east Pacific and introducing rain chances into west Texas.
The European shows this tropical disturbance moving westward away
from North America, resulting in lower rain chances for the weekend.
For now, rain chances were kept around 20% for Saturday with
seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Some lingering MVFR ceilings remain as the isolated showers from
earlier this morning begin to dissipate, leaving an abundance of
low-level moisture and low stratus across some terminals through
15Z this morning. There remains some uncertainty with regards to
shower and thunderstorm development today, as models continue to
struggle with the placement and timing of these systems which
could mean the difference between VFR and MVFR conditions.
Utilized PROB30 and TEMPO groups in the TAF package to show for
this uncertainty. A brief reprieve is expected later this morning
into early this afternoon, with VFR ceilings prevailing prior to
the next round of showers and thunderstorms that can bring back
the potential for MVFR conditions this afternoon into the
overnight period again tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  70  88  66 /  70  30  20   0
San Angelo  86  68  85  64 /  80  50  30  10
Junction    88  67  85  64 /  80  70  70  10
Brownwood   84  68  85  64 /  80  40  40  10
Sweetwater  87  69  89  66 /  50  20  20   0
Ozona       86  68  85  63 /  80  70  60  10
Brady       83  68  83  65 /  80  60  50  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP