615
FXUS64 KSJT 031952
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional severe thunderstorms are expected after midnight tonight.

- Widespread thunderstorms are expected again on Friday night and
  Saturday morning. Some of these may also reach severe levels.

- A brief light freeze may be possible both Sunday and Monday
  mornings in low lying and protected areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A broad upper level trough will remain across the Four Corners
region. However, an embedded disturbance in the flow will cross
through our area tonight. This will bring another round of
thunderstorms across the area. The Storm Prediction Center has
included most of our area in a Slight Risk of severe weather. In
fact, this activity is likely to be severe with large hail (up to
baseball size) and damaging winds (60-70 MPH) being the main
concerns. There remains a low risk (5% chance) for excessive
rainfall leading to flash flooding per the Weather Prediction
Center. Expect the majority of the coverage to occur after
midnight tonight as clusters of thunderstorms develop and move
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the area Friday from late evening into the overnight hours, as
the upper trough to the west approaches West Texas. Strong elevated
instability, combined with very strong deep layer shear will support
elevated supercells Friday night, with damaging winds and large to
very large hail (golfball to baseball) possible with the strongest
cells Models show the majority of the convection will hold off until
after midnight and persist into early Saturday morning before moving
east of the area. In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, which may result in localized flooding.
Additional showers and storms are expected during the day on Saturday
but the threat for severe storms will diminish. Precipitation is
expected to end Saturday evening across northern sections, as the
upper trough swings through.

A drier and cooler airmass will filter in behind the upper system
over the weekend, then a warming trend will take place next week,
with near to above normal temperatures returning. Could see a light
freeze Saturday night and again Sunday night, as temperatures drop
into the low to mid 30s for overnight lows. Highs Saturday and Sunday
will be mainly in the 50s, warming into the lower 70s by Monday and
into the low to mid 80s by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Minor improvements to the MVFR ceilings will be had through 21z or
so. Then, MVFR to IFR levels will make a return across the
region. Widespread thunderstorms will be capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds. Expect erratic wind shifts at times
in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Otherwise, not much improvement
will be seen before the end of the 18z TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     51  61  48  53 /  80  70 100  80
San Angelo  51  65  48  57 /  80  50 100  70
Junction    56  75  49  64 /  60  50 100  40
Brownwood   52  66  49  59 /  70  70 100  60
Sweetwater  50  60  47  51 /  90  70 100  90
Ozona       54  69  50  59 /  80  40  90  60
Brady       56  68  50  59 /  70  60 100  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41