928
FXUS64 KSJT 052341
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
641 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon for mainly the area south of a line from Winchell to
  Paint Rock to Eldorado to Ozona.

- Hot and mostly dry conditions expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

An upper level high is centered over Oklahoma/Kansas today.
An area of enhanced cumulus has developed over southern portions of
the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. This is in association
with a weak disturbance moving west around the southern periphery of
the aforementioned high. A few showers have developed as of 1 PM
over this area. With a moderately unstable and moist airmass
(precipitable water values 1.5 to 1.7 inches), isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. The main
weather hazards are with the storms are lightning and localized
strong, gusty winds. While locally heavy rain is expected with the
showers and storms, will have to monitor for the potential of
lightning to start new grass fires given how dry the vegetation is.

The convection will dissipate this evening and skies will be clear
to partly cloudy tonight. A warm and humid night is expected with
overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. The upper high will remain
in place on Sunday and perhaps shift a little farther south. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon in mainly
the southern third of our area. Temperatures will remain above
normal with highs ranging from the lower/mid 90s in our southern
counties, to the upper 90s to 101 across the Big Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Overall hot and mostly dry conditions are expected for our area next
week. The upper high will be centered over Oklahoma on Monday before
expanding northeast across the mid-South Tuesday. On Wednesday the
high is forecast to become elongated from the Carolinas across the
southern Plains and into the Southwest. Beyond midweek the medium
range models have some differences on the strength of the high and
where it will be centered relative to our area. In addition to how
it could influence temperatures (how hot), this will have
implications on whether a weakness or possible disturbances aloft
can bring any chances of showers and thunderstorms to our area.
Blend of models at this time has daily highs generally ranging from
the mid 90s in our southern counties, to the upper 90s to 101 across
the Big Country and portions of the Concho Valley. PoPs are rather
limited and confined to portions of our southern counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A few isolated storms continue to dissipate across the area, and
should not be an issue for any of the area terminals. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and south to southeast winds will continue at 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  72  97  72  97 /   0  10   0   0
Junction    70  95  70  95 /   0  30  10  20
Brownwood   71  97  71  97 /   0  10   0  10
Sweetwater  75  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       70  93  70  93 /   0  10  10   0
Brady       71  93  71  94 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07