112
FXUS64 KSJT 142342
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry weather will persist through the weekend and into at
  least the middle of next week.

- Elevated elevated fire weather conditions for Saturday
  afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Our dominant weather feature in the short term is a large upper
level ridge which is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Skies will be mostly clear tonight and mostly sunny on Saturday.
South winds are breezy today and will be breezy again during much of
the day Saturday. Fire weather conditions will be elevated this
afternoon and again Saturday afternoon given the hot, dry and breezy
conditions. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s. Highs
Saturday will range from the mid 90s in our southern counties, to
100-103 in the Big Country and a good portion of the Concho Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Our area will have a continuation of hot and dry conditions Sunday
through Wednesday with mostly clear skies, with the prevailing
influence from a large and expansive upper level ridge. The center
of this ridge will shift to the west-northwest and be over the
ArkLaTex Monday, North Texas on Tuesday, and over the southwestern
CONUS in the middle to late week time frame. While little change is
expected with daily low temperatures, the 850mb thermal ridge is
progged to strengthen over our area in the early to middle parts of
next week. This favors an uptick in the daily highs, with most of
our area at or above 100 degrees, and a larger part of the Big
Country and some of the Concho Valley pushing Heat Advisory
criteria. South winds will continue each day, but expect wind speeds
should to be a little lower Sunday through Tuesday as the surface
pressure gradient weakens to some extent. Increased south winds are
indicated Wednesday.

Our area may see an interruption to this pattern that may last 2-3
days, late in the week. With the westward shift in the position of
the upper ridge, a shortwave upper trough is progged to move east-
southeast across the central Plains in the Wednesday to Thursday
time frame. This could allow an associated weak cold front to move
south into our area Thursday into Friday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front, but there
is uncertainty at this time in how far south the front would
progress, and the timing. With increased cloud cover, temperatures
would be a little cooler as well. Something to monitor with
subsequent model data and model trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The one
exception is scattered to broken ceilings anticipated for Sonora
and potentially Junction between 10-17Z. Otherwise, south winds
should be around 10KT with occasional gusts overnight. Winds
should increase to around 15KT after 15Z tomorrow with gusts over
20KT in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     77 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  73  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    72  96  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   74  99  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  76 100  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       72  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...SK