750
FXUS64 KSJT 111132
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
632 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as hot this week with a chance of isolated to scattered
  showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Temperatures will decrease and precipitation chances will increase
this afternoon as an upper level shortwave approaches the area
today. We could see a few storms form along a boundary over West
Texas this afternoon, with storms approaching our western counties
in the late afternoon and evening. However, the main rain chances
for the short term will be overnight Monday into Tuesday. A complex
of storms is expected to form in eastern New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle near a cold front this evening. These storms are then
forecast to move east/southeast, potentially impacting our forecast
area. The highest chance for storms will be in the northern Big
Country, with decreasing chances as we move southeast. Moisture will
be high across the area, with PWAT values around 1.5 inches. With
that said, storms tonight will have the potential to produce heavy
rainfall. Most areas will not see substantial rainfall amounts, but
a few localized areas could see a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain, which
could lead to flash flooding concerns in low lying areas. Today and
tonight`s thunderstorm activity is expected to remain below severe
thresholds, however we will be keeping a close eye on the potential
for strong and potentially damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

With the breakdown of the upper level ridge and the passage of a
weak upper level trough by mid week, capping across the area will
erode and there will be better chances of convection across the
area. Where, how widespread, and exactly when are the bigger
questions. Much of the activity will be driven by mesoscale
processes, with whatever convection that develops across the
Panhandle later today producing additional convection farther
southeast into West Central Texas forced by outflow boundaries and
possible leftover MCV`s.

Each of the CAMs has a slightly different solution and not a lot
of faith in any one particular model outcome for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some of the models (HRRR, ARW) focus the best chances
on Tuesday afternoon mainly southeast of a Brownwood-San Angelo
line driven by outflow from tonight`s convection. The RRFS
produces enough convection tonight that a more substantial outflow
pushes through just about all of West Central Texas and limits
any convection at all. Meanwhile, the NAMNEST pushes a much
weaker outflow through the area and redevelops much more
concentrated convection back to the north across the Big Country
and northern Concho Valley later Tuesday night as a bit of a low
level jet intersects a weak cold front.

Given diurnal heating and instability during daylight hours, will
assume that convective development during the afternoon hours on
Tuesday along any outflow boundaries will be the most likely
scenario but given the uncertainty will not try to fine tune too
much. Model blends show a blanket roughly 30% POP across most of
the area and this is as good a starting point as any this point.
Once the convection develops this afternoon and tonight and there
is a better consensus on where the outflow boundaries or any
remnant MCVs end up, suspect that POPs will go up in certain
areas.

Otherwise, still not much of a cap in place on Wednesday
afternoon. Even more uncertainty on where convection may develop
and not going to argue much with the model blends.

Later on in the forecast, the upper level ridge is now forecasted
to be a little slower trying to build back into the area, with the
center of the high holding over the southeast US. Temperatures
will climb for late in the week and into the weekend but not
quite as quickly as we were looking at yesterday. Highs near
normal in the mid 90s to near 100 with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue at the terminals through the next 24
hours. High res models show a complex of showers and storms
approaching the Big Country in the early morning hours Tuesday
mainly after 09Z. Confidence in coverage was too low to include
a mention in the KABI TAF for this package but may need to
included in future TAF packages if confidence increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     98  72  93  73 /  10  20  30  20
San Angelo  97  71  93  71 /  10  10  30  20
Junction    95  71  94  71 /  10  10  30  10
Brownwood   95  71  94  72 /  10  10  30  10
Sweetwater  98  71  93  73 /  10  30  30  20
Ozona       95  71  93  71 /  10  10  30  20
Brady       93  72  92  72 /  10   0  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42