617
FXUS64 KSJT 070503
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1203 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions expected this weekend.

- Severe weather threat for at least the Big Country Sunday
  evening and Sunday night.

- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated for at least the first
  half of next week, with heavy rainfall possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of West Texas
and move to the east-northeast this evening into tonight. We have
low PoPs for the northwest and northern Big Country to account for
the possibility of a few storms moving into that area. There is a
conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds with the storms.

Warm and humid conditions are expected for our area tonight, with
overnight lows expected to be 70-75 degrees. Hotter temperatures are
expected on Saturday, compared to today. Highs are expected to be 96-
102 degrees across our area, with triple digit highs most likely to
be in portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley. An upper level
high will be centered over northeastern Mexico and adjacent South
Texas. With heights building aloft slightly over our area tonight
into Saturday and lack of upper support, keeping PoPs below 15
percent. Some of the hi-res models have indicated a potential for
isolated thunderstorms to develop by late afternoon/evening north of
San Angelo to around Sweetwater. This would be near/south of an
outflow boundary and ahead of a dryline in West Texas. Will need to
further assess this possibility and possibly add some PoPs in later
forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Mid/upper level ridge will reside over Mexico on Sunday, with
the ridge axis extending north across the area. Above normal
temperatures will persist, with afternoon highs ranging between
97-102 degrees, highest across the Concho Valley and western Big
Country. The ridge begins to weaken Sunday night, with northwest
flow aloft developing into early next week. Thunderstorms,
including supercells are expected to develop over the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma Sunday afternoon, within a very
unstable airmass and strong vertical shear. Some of the model
guidance is showing these storms eventually consolidating into an
MCS and propagating southeast into the Big Country later Sunday
evening and overnight. The main hazards will be large hail,
isolated tornadoes and especially damaging winds if an MCS does
materialize. NBM medium to high POPs seem reasonable at this time
for the Big Country, with lower POPs extending south into the
Concho Valley and Heartland.

A favorable upper level pattern (west-northwest flow aloft)
will bring additional thunderstorm chances to much of the area
Monday through Wednesday. A cold front is also expected to move
in from the north late Monday into Tuesday and will serve as a
focus for storm development. Cannot rule out isolated severe
storms during these days but heavy rainfall and a threat for
flooding may be the bigger concern, as the front tries to stall
across the area. Low rain chances will persists into Thursday but
will diminish considerably by Friday as an upper level ridge
begins to build into West Texas.

Much cooler temperatures can be expected next week, with highs
Tuesday through Thursday mainly in the 80s, warming into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Convection is waning but still ongoing across West Texas, but
nothing is close to affecting any of the West Central Texas
terminals early this morning. Some of the CAMs do snow more
convection that may be close to the KSJT and KABI tomorrow
evening, but given the uncertainty will leave out of the forecast
for now. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail, although
models do show some patchy MVFR cigs right around and shortly
after sunrise Saturday morning across the southern terminals. Have
included a brief 3-4 hour window at a few locations but left it
out of KSJT and KABI. South and southeast winds will continue and
will continue to be gusty during daylight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  98  74  99 /  10   0  10  10
San Angelo  73  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    72  97  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   72  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  73 100  74 101 /  30   0   0  10
Ozona       72  96  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07