584
FXUS64 KSJT 121154
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
554 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased chance for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight.

- Windy and warmer Wednesday afternoon.

- Very cold temperatures expected Thursday morning, with wind
  chills in the single digits to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms that moved through our area last night
have pushed off to the east, with just a few light showers
remaining across our far eastern counties. Patchy fog and mist
will continue through the morning hours as the low levels remain
saturated. Otherwise, the main challenge today will the timing of
a strong cold front and its impact on temperatures for this
afternoon. The front is forecast to drop southward into the Big
Country by the late morning/early afternoon as an arctic airmass
spills into the Central Plains. Have undercut the NBM by several
degrees for highs in the Big Country. However, high res-model
guidance and the NAM (which tends to handle these shallow arctic
air masses the best) hold temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s
along and north of the I-20 corridor all day. Further south in the
Concho Valley if winds shift out of the west this afternoon and
skies clear then temperatures could soar into the 60s. However, if
the front speeds up then highs will be much cooler than what is
reflected in the forecast. Needless to say, this is a low
confidence temperature forecast for this afternoon. The front
should sweep through the entire area by tonight. A hard freeze is
expected Thursday morning, with lows bottoming out in the upper
teens (Big Country) and the 20s across the rest of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The main story for the long term will continue to be the up and
down temperatures as a series of cold fronts move through. For
Thursday, we will be behind a cold front that will move south of
the area tonight. Highs will struggle to get out of the 40s under
cloudy skies for most of the area, but we may see a few 50s along
and south of I-10.

As the next upper level trough moves east into the western CONUS,
surface winds will respond to lee troughing, turning back to the
south by Friday. We will start under cloudy skies, but may manage
to see some breaks in the clouds by mid to late afternoon. Highs
should warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Saturday, the warming
trend will continue, but winds will switch to the west/northwest
ahead of the next cold front. Skies should become mostly clear by
afternoon, and highs will be in the 60s north to the mid 70s for
southern locations. The next cold front will be through the area
by late Saturday night, bringing highs back down into the 40s and
50s for Sunday. The pattern repeats itself for Monday and Tuesday,
with southerly surface winds returning, and warming highs back up
into the 60s, and possibly some 70s. No precipitation is expected
Thursday through next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the
morning hours. Conditions should gradually improve to MVFR and
then VFR this afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will develop across
the southern terminals this afternoon ahead of a cold front,
which will shift winds back out of the north by this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     53  23  39  30 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  68  26  42  33 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    75  27  45  33 /   0   0  10   0
Brownwood   62  23  42  30 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  56  21  40  31 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       71  29  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       68  26  41  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42