161
FXUS64 KSJT 312316
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
616 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory for Haskell and Throckmorton counties today from
  Noon to 8 PM.

- A few strong storms possible late this evening and tonight in
  the northern Big Country with strong, gusty winds and lightning
  the main hazards.

- Low (20-40%) rain chances on Saturday, along with slightly
  cooler temperatures.

- Hot and dry weather is expected late this weekend into next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Upper level high has shifted far enough west to put much of the
Southern Plains into northerly flow aloft, reducing the cap
somewhat and allowing a cold front to sag into the area. This
front has reached Oklahoma this afternoon and has helped produce
some scattered convection across that area. Most of the CAMs show
the boundary continue to slowly sag south through tonight, likely
aided by another burst of convection north of the boundary across
the Texas South Plains east into the Red River Valley. Some of
this convection may follow the front into the Big Country this
evening.

Better chance for storms for West Central Texas will likely be
behind the front on Saturday, where CAMs are pretty consistent in
showing at least scattered convection during the late morning and
afternoon hours for areas mainly south of I-20. Model blends have
bumped POPs into the 30-50% range for much of the area south of a
San Angelo to Brownwood line and see little reason to change much
from these numbers. Again, weak shear will limit severe potential,
but still, some lightning, gusty winds, and brief locally heavy
rainfall will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Most of the CAMs show the convection pushing south of the area by
00Z tomorrow afternoon, or at least within an hour or two after
that. Will not yet run POPs into Saturday night at this point but
will monitor to see if the activity lingers longer than expected.

After tomorrow though, rain chances diminish pretty quickly. Upper
high builds back into place. Its not the strongest upper ridge we
can see this summer, but its strong enough to inhibit most
precipitation chances for next week. After a little cool down
behind the weak front, temperatures will rebound back to near or a
few degrees above normal for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Generally VFR through the next 24 hours. There is a chance for
some TSRA at KABI this evening for a few hours, and at the
southern sites during the afternoon hours on Saturday. Otherwise,
south winds near 10 knots, becoming light and variable tonight.
Winds will turn northeast at KABI tomorrow, and west to northwest
at the southern sites during the afternoon hours Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78  97  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
San Angelo  75  96  70  98 /   0  40  10   0
Junction    73  95  71  97 /   0  50  20   0
Brownwood   75  97  71  99 /  10  20   0   0
Sweetwater  77  97  72  99 /  10  20  10   0
Ozona       73  93  71  95 /   0  50  10   0
Brady       75  94  70  96 /  10  30  30   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Haskell-
Throckmorton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20