762
FXUS64 KSJT 041116 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
616 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot today with high temperatures near or above the 100 degree
  mark in much of the area.

- Rain chances return by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

An upper ridge has been in place in recent days, from the Pacific
Northwest southeast across new Mexico and far West Texas. This
ridge will begin to break down later today and tonight, especially
along its southern portion. The flow aloft will become southwest
over our area by early Friday morning. With a return to south to
southwest surface winds, mostly sunny skies, and 850mb thermal
ridge expanding east into our area, temperatures will be hotter
today. Expect highs to be 100-103 degrees across the Big Country.
The forecast high for Abilene is 103 and their record high for
this date is 106 (set in 2000). Farther south, highs will be
mostly in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees (near 100 at San
Angelo). Temperatures will be warm tonight with a south or south-
southwest breeze. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s,
with the warmest readings overall in the Big Country. Skies will
be mostly clear to partly cloudy.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A more active weather pattern is expected for the region as we head
into the weekend. Hurricane Lorena is expected to be downgraded to a
tropical storm on Friday, as it tracks north across the southern
portion of the Baja Peninsula late Friday afternoon, and then become
a depression as it lifts north on Saturday. Remnant moisture from
this system is expected to track northeast across Mexico on Friday
and into West Texas by Saturday.
In addition, a cold front is forecast to drop south across the
Plains Thursday night, with the front pushing into West Central
Texas late Friday into Saturday. The front will provide a source of
lift, and with the remnant moisture from Lorena, rain chances will
increase over the area this weekend, with the best coverage expected
Saturday night into Sunday.

The exact placement of the front will play a crucial role, as the
best rain chances and potential for heavier precipitation will be in
the vicinity of the frontal boundary. As of now, the forecast favors
areas south of the Big Country for the highest rain chances (50 to
70 percent) Saturday night into Sunday. Model trends will need to be
monitored closely, as this scenario could result in heavy rain
potential and a pose a flooding threat over the weekend. Rain
chances will persist into Monday, with a drying trend expected as we
head into the middle of next week. In addition to the rain chances,
temperatures are expected to be considerably cooler this weekend
into early next week, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s
Saturday and Sunday, and mainly in the 80s for next Monday and
Tuesday. Lower 90s return by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with
generally only some high clouds anticipated. For our southern
terminals, south-southwest winds will increase by late morning
or afternoon, but then drop off again by later this evening.
Farther north at KABI and KSJT, south to southwest winds will
increase by mid-morning and continue through the afternoon.
A few gusts near 20 knots are expected at KABI, and KSJT may
have a few gusts 17-19 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    103  76  97  64 /   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  99  74  94  66 /   0   0   0  10
Junction   100  71  96  69 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood  100  72  96  65 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater 102  76  95  62 /   0   0  10  20
Ozona       97  74  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       98  73  94  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19