450
FXUS64 KSJT 030626
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
126 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening into Monday
  morning. A few strong to severe storms are possible. Locally
  heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Hot conditions expected to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Early this morning, strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
across the Texas Panhandle. This activity is forecast to move south
overnight, eventually approaching the northern Big Country toward
daybreak. Most of the CAMs indicate this activity weakening as it
approaches our area, which is not surprising during that time of the
morning. Will need to monitor trends later this morning to see if
any of this activity makes it farther south than currently
anticipated, but for now any PoPs were confined to the Big Country.
Expect hot temperatures across the area today with highs mid 90s to
near 100.

West Central Texas will remain in north to northwest flow aloft as
an upper level ridge remain centered across the Desert Southwest.
Models are indicating showers and thunderstorms developing this
afternoon to our north and west, with this activity advancing south
and east into the area overnight. There is still some uncertainty on
exactly how much coverage we will see, so PoPs were generally kept
in the slight chance to chance category. A few strong to severe
storms are possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the
main concerns. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

On Monday, thunderstorms from overnight convection could still be
affecting our southern/eastern counties during the morning hours.
In addition, potential outflow boundaries from the overnight
convection could contribute to additional showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon across the southern half of the
area.

From Tuesday through the rest of the work week, models continue
to show the upper level ridging centered near southern AZ
strengthening and spreading to the north and east. This will
reduce our rain chances, and cause warmer temperatures, so have
kept the forecast hot and dry through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Thunderstorms currently across the Panhandle will move south
overnight and possibly move into the Big Country toward daybreak.
Confidence is low that any storms will make it to KABI, so have
not included in the current TAFs. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
to prevail through the next 24 hours and winds to generally
remain below 10 knots. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible after 00Z Monday, but confidence is low on the placement
and coverage of this activity. For now, have no included a mention
of thunder in the grids, but might need to add thunder on future
TAF packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  71  93  71 /  20  40  10   0
San Angelo  99  72  97  71 /  10  20  10  10
Junction    97  73  97  71 /   0  10  20  10
Brownwood   95  72  92  70 /  10  30  20  10
Sweetwater 100  71  95  71 /  20  30   0   0
Ozona       97  73  99  72 /   0  10  10  10
Brady       94  72  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Daniels