157
FXUS64 KSJT 181835
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
135 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are possible today north of a
  Sterling City to Brownwood line.

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are possible with week, with the
  highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

An upper level ridge is centered across the Four Corners region with
West Central Texas on the eastern periphery. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are currently developing across portions
of the Big Country and expect an increase in activity through the
afternoon hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also
possible farther south into the Concho Valley and Heartland. The
main concern will be locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.
Most of this activity will dissipate this evening, with mainly dry
conditions overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Another hot day is forecast on Tuesday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s for most locations. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected, with higher coverage than what we are
expecting today. Rain chances ranches will generally be in the 20 to
40 percent range, with the higher chances across the southern half
of the region. The main concerns will be locally heavy rainfall and
strong gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Wednesday morning as
a weak cold front moves into West Central Texas. Front will be
more of a wind shift than actual front, and temperatures will only
fall a couple degrees, with highs in the mid 90s for Wednesday.

Locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazards, particularly
Wednesday into Thursday. Storm will be slow moving, and the
atmosphere will be tropical-like, with precipital water amounts
ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Storm Friday and Saturday focus
farther south along the I-10 corridor/NW Hill country. Only
isolated storms expected early next week, mainly along the I-10
corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
with the highest confidence at KABI where a PROB30 group for
thunder was included. Most shower and thunderstorm activity will
dissipate this evening. South to southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph,
with higher gusts, will become light this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  99  75  97 /  10  20  10  50
San Angelo  74  97  72  97 /  10  30  10  50
Junction    71  98  71  98 /  10  30  10  50
Brownwood   74  98  73  96 /  10  20  10  50
Sweetwater  75  99  75  96 /  10  30  10  50
Ozona       72  96  71  96 /  10  40  20  50
Brady       73  95  73  95 /  10  40  10  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...Daniels