584
FXUS64 KSJT 171657
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1157 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry weather will persist through the upcoming week

- The hottest temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday,
  where highs will be around 105 degrees across the Big Country

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the region
today keeping hot and dry conditions in place. Forecast
highs in the Big Country are just shy of heat advisory criteria so
will hold off on an advisory for this forecast package. Expect
highs of 100 to 104 degrees across most of the area under mostly
sunny skies. Overnight lows will remain on the mild side in the
mid 70s. Elevated fire weather conditions will persist although
lighter winds will mitigate the overall fire weather threat today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Not much change in the upcoming week as hot and dry conditions will
continue for the next several days.  This is due to a 596dam upper-
level ridge that will remain the dominant feature across the
southern US. This ridge will retrograde westward on Tuesday and
become centered over west Texas through Wednesday. The warmest days
look will be Tuesday through Thursday when 850mb temperatures will
increase to 25-27 deg C.  There is a medium to high (40-70%) chance
for high temperatures to exceed 105 degrees across the Big Country,
so heat advisories could be needed those days.  High temperatures
are expected to be 100-103 for areas further south.

By late Thursday, the ridge will shift further westward and become
centered over the Four Corners region.  Temperatures will be a few
degrees lower but this likely will not bring much overall relief
from the heat for most areas. A weak cold front will push southward
into north Texas late Friday into Saturday.  While earlier ensembles
and a few deterministic runs showed low (<20%) chances for rain with
this front, the consensus now shows next to nothing so PoPs have
been reduced accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours across all
terminals. Southerly winds today will become light and variable by
this evening and through the overnight period into Tuesday
morning. Winds will pick back up from the south to southwest
around 10 knots late Tuesday morning generally across KABI and
KSJT. Other terminals are expected to remain light and variable
through the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  78 104  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 101  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   100  72 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  102  73 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 103  76 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       97  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady      100  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP