Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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098 FXUS64 KSJT 310955 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 355 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather is expected Friday into next week, along with a significant warmup. Daytime highs will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal Saturday through next Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Upper low currently over Oklahoma will track east away from the area today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing through tonight. Breezy northwest winds will continue today, but will begin to subside by late afternoon, with light winds expected tonight. Skies will be sunny, with pleasant afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. A dry airmass, coupled with light winds and clear skies, will allow for chilly temperatures tonight, with lows in the mid and upper 30s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 The long term period will be warm and dry. Quasi zonal flow aloft will transition to broad upper level ridging on Monday. We could see a shortwave or two in the flow aloft this weekend, but the profile should be too dry to support any rain chances. At the surface, winds will be mainly out of the south/southwest, bringing warmer air into our area. This set up will allow temperatures to warm to around 20 degrees above normal for Sunday and Monday and lead to elevated fire weather conditions this weekend. Models start to diverge a bit as we go into Monday night and Tuesday afternoon. The GFS is still bouncing between bringing a cold front down into our area and keeping it to our north. This is causing about a 20 to 25 degree swing in Tuesday`s high temperatures from run to run of the GFS. Other models are pretty consistent with keeping the front to our north, which keeps our highs in the upper 70s and 80s. We`re keeping Tuesday`s high temperatures on the warmer side, closer to the majority of ensemble members, but we`ll keep an eye on this. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Gusty winds should continue for most locations through the night with a period of lower wind speeds on Friday morning. Periods of low-level wind shear are also possible in places where wind speeds are light at the surface. Winds should increase by late morning and shift out of the northwest. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 40 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 70 36 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 71 35 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 68 35 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 68 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 69 39 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 68 38 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...SK