Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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098
FXUS64 KSJT 310955
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
355 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected Friday into next week, along with a
  significant warmup. Daytime highs will be 10 to 20 degrees
  above normal Saturday through next Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Upper low currently over Oklahoma will track east away from the
area today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing through tonight.
Breezy northwest winds will continue today, but will begin to
subside by late afternoon, with light winds expected tonight.
Skies will be sunny, with pleasant afternoon temperatures in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. A dry airmass, coupled with light winds
and clear skies, will allow for chilly temperatures tonight, with
lows in the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

The long term period will be warm and dry. Quasi zonal flow aloft
will transition to broad upper level ridging on Monday. We could
see a shortwave or two in the flow aloft this weekend, but the
profile should be too dry to support any rain chances. At the
surface, winds will be mainly out of the south/southwest, bringing
warmer air into our area. This set up will allow temperatures to
warm to around 20 degrees above normal for Sunday and Monday and
lead to elevated fire weather conditions this weekend.

Models start to diverge a bit as we go into Monday night and
Tuesday afternoon. The GFS is still bouncing between bringing a
cold front down into our area and keeping it to our north. This is
causing about a 20 to 25 degree swing in Tuesday`s high
temperatures from run to run of the GFS. Other models are pretty
consistent with keeping the front to our north, which keeps our
highs in the upper 70s and 80s. We`re keeping Tuesday`s high
temperatures on the warmer side, closer to the majority of
ensemble members, but we`ll keep an eye on this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Gusty winds should continue for most locations through the night
with a period of lower wind speeds on Friday morning. Periods of
low-level wind shear are also possible in places where wind speeds
are light at the surface.  Winds should increase by late morning
and shift out of the northwest. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  40  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  70  36  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    71  35  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   68  35  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  68  41  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       69  39  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       68  38  74  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK