514
FXUS64 KSJT 031859
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
159 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening into Monday
  morning. A few strong to severe storms are possible. Locally
  heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Hot conditions expected to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across portions of the
Big Country and the Concho Valley late tonight...

The showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Big Country
earlier today have weakened and diminished in coverage this
afternoon. An outflow boundary is draped across the Concho Valley
and the Heartland this afternoon but not much in the way of
convection has developed along that boundary. May see some
isolated storms develop across portions of the Heartland this
afternoon where equivalent potential temperatures are higher.

The potential for thunderstorms to develop and move into west
central Texas tonight exists as the combination of a low level jet
at 850mb across west Texas and the Texas panhandle, the right
front quadrant of an upper level jet at 300mb across the Texas
panhandle, and a strong mid level jet at 500mb across the Texas
panhandle and western Oklahoma should provide enough support for
thunderstorms to develop across northwest Texas this evening and
move southeast into west central Texas late tonight. SPC currently
has a slight risk for the western portions of the Big Country and
the northern portions of the Concho Valley for tonight into early
Monday morning. There is a low chance (15 to 29 percent) of
damaging winds and a low chance (5 to 14 percent) of large hail in
the slight risk area. There is a marginal risk of severe weather
across the remainder of the Concho Valley, the Big Country and
portions of the Heartland for tonight into early Mon morning. With
strong to severe thunderstorms developing tonight into early
Monday morning...the potential for heavy rain is likely with these
storms. WPC currently has most of the CWA in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall (flash flooding) for tonight into Mon morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025


Showers and thunderstorm chances are low, Monday night into
Saturday, as upper ridging in the Southwest expands eastward.

That said, can`t rule out an isolated evening thunderstorms Monday
night. A few showers/thunderstorm may still be dissipating Monday
evening in the NW Hill country. Also, with northerly flow aloft, the
HRRR model does develop yet another a storm complex that moves
southeast into the Big Country late Monday night. At this point,
however, will keep rain chances out, as most models are dry.

The main concern will be increasing temperatures this week, with
highs returning back to 100 to 103 range Tuesday into Saturday, in
the Big Country and N. Concho Valley. Heat indices will be near or
perhaps a degree above temperatures, so will have to monitor for
possible heat advisories later this week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Satellite and radar images indicate convection continues across
portions of the Big Country early this afternoon. Mid to high
level clouds across the northern portions of the CWA were
associated with the showers and thunderstorms over the Big
Country. Otherwise...skies were clear across the rest of west
central Texas. Not much in the way of convection has developed
along the outflow boundary that is currently moving southward
across the Concho Valley and the Heartland. It appears at the
moment that any shower or thunderstorm development this afternoon
and evening will be confined to the northern portions of the CWA.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the afternoon
into the evening except where showers and thunderstorms will
provide MVFR ceilings or visibilities.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  97  72  98 /  30  10   0   0
San Angelo  73  99  72  98 /  20  10  10   0
Junction    72  97  72  96 /  10  20  10  10
Brownwood   72  94  71  94 /  20  30  10  10
Sweetwater  72  99  72 100 /  30  10   0   0
Ozona       73  98  72  97 /  10  10  10   0
Brady       72  94  71  93 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...61