062
FXUS64 KSJT 190605
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
105 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the
  highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The area will remain in weak northeasterly flow aloft today, with
ridging just west of the area. At the surface, we will have weak
easterly winds, with dewpoint values in the 60s to near 70
degrees. In this weakly capped environment with plenty of
moisture to utilize, we will again see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening
hours. Although the entire area has a chance to see activity, the
best chances are generally south of I-20, and most locations won`t
actually see rainfall. Highs will be similar to the last few days
in the 90s to near 100 in isolated locations. Expect the
convective activity to end during the evening hours with loss of
daytime heating and instability. Lows will continue to be mainly
in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

An unsettled pattern will remain in place through the early part
of next week, with increased rain chances in the forecast from
Wednesday through Friday. A weak cold front will move through the
area Wednesday morning, causing a wind shift and helping showers
and thunderstorms develop across the area. The main hazards will
be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy rainfall
from slowly moving storms which could potentially cause flooding.
Rain chances will decrease slightly Thursday after the front
moves through, with the highest chances remaining across our
southeastern counties. We will have a better idea on potential
locations of the heavier rainfall as we get closer and high-res
models become available.

Generally, the upper-level high will shift west and remain over
the four corners region through this weekend, making way for a
series of upper-level disturbances to traverse the area on the
eastern periphery of the upper-level high and over West Central
Texas. These disturbances along with a continued influx of
tropical moisture from the south to southeast will keep showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon and evening
through early next week. Only isolated storms expected early next
week, mainly along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will remain
near normal for this time of year (in the mid to upper 90s) with a
slight drop in temperature behind the front, resulting in highs
on Thursday to drop into the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions expected to dominate area TAFs through tomorrow
evening, with light and variable or easterly winds. Although there
will be isolated to scattered TSRA tomorrow afternoon, exact
confidence is not high enough in timing or placement to introduce
a mention at any specific site at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     98  75  97  72 /  20  10  40  20
San Angelo  97  72  97  71 /  30  20  40  30
Junction    98  70  98  70 /  40  20  40  40
Brownwood   98  73  96  72 /  20  10  50  30
Sweetwater  99  75  97  73 /  30  20  40  20
Ozona       95  70  95  70 /  40  20  50  30
Brady       95  73  95  71 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...20