441
FXUS64 KSJT 220503
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1203 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty hit and miss showers and storms possible south of a
  Brownwood to San Angelo line this afternoon

- Drier and warmer for the upcoming weekend.

- Rain chances return to West Central Texas by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

One last storm over Comanche County continues a trek southwest
towards the Heartland. Will continue to monitor it and add POPs
ahead of it as needed. Otherwise, more of the same in the
afternoon expected today. Whats left of the front continues to
dissipate. Without a coherent boundary, showers and storms will
possible but look to be decreasing in overall coverage. Position
of the upper high over Colorado and the northeast flow aloft will
largely keep air mass from become capped, but still only looking
at CAPE values of 500-1000 J/Kg. A few relatively isolated showers
and storms are being shown in some of the CAMs as far north as San
Angelo and Brownwood, but a little better concentration is likely
across the Hill Country closer to the boundary remnants and where
higher surface dewpoints will provide slightly more instability.
Most of the showers and storms will dissipate by sunset, but as
can see on the radar, in this air mass, its not impossible for
some of the activity to linger well into the overnight hours.

As for temperatures, not much different than where they ended up
on Thursday. Highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. Lows Saturday
morning mainly int he mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Models continue to show a pattern change beginning Saturday and
Sunday with a strengthening upper-level low over the Great Lakes and
eastern Canada.  As this feature digs southward into the eastern
third of the country, a drier airmass will be pushed into Texas with
northerly mid-level winds and should shut off rain chances this
weekend. For the early to middle part of next week, models are in
overall agreement of this feature elongating and digging further
southward into the eastern US.  If this comes to fruition, it would
push a surface cold front and a strong surface high pressure area
through the central Plains and Mississippi Valley Monday into
Tuesday. Just how far south this front will progresses will be the
big question, but recent model runs have come into better agreement
of the front stalling over north Texas.  Wherever it ends up, there
could be at least some potential for heavy rain and cooler than
normal temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday. The CPC 6-10 Day
Outlook currently shows a low to medium chance for below normal
temperatures and at least medium chances for above normal rainfall
during this time. For now, this situation will be monitored closely
over the next few days for potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Friday evening. Spotty showers and storms will again be
possible, but given the limited coverage and the uncertainty in
timing and locations as well as fairly limited impact, will hold
off on adding to the aviation forecasts for now. Light winds this
morning will continue but a little more steady northeast wind at 5
to 10 kts will be likely for the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  68  93  68  95 /   0  10   0  10
Junction    66  91  65  93 /  10  20  10  20
Brownwood   68  93  67  94 /   0  10   0   0
Sweetwater  69  96  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       68  92  67  93 /   0  10   0  10
Brady       69  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...07