392
FXUS64 KSJT 221705
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances each afternoon/evening through Friday, with
  diminishing chances this weekend.

- Storms could be strong to severe each day with large hail and
  damaging winds possible.

- There is also potential for flash flooding for any areas that
  receive repeated rounds of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Low clouds will move into our southern counties this morning and
will start to break up in the late morning. Temperatures will
remain above normal this afternoon, with highs generally in the
mid to upper 80s. Southeast surface winds will bring Gulf moisture
into the area, raising dewpoints and increasing instability. A
dryline will be set up over west Texas this afternoon and a
disturbance will move through the southwest flow aloft. Increased
moisture east of the dryline, daytime heating, and weak lift at
upper levels could be enough to get a few storms going over West
Texas this afternoon. If the isolated to scattered storms form,
they will likely move east into our area in the evening. Most
models have this round of storms moving out or dissipating by the
early morning. With this activity, we could see strong to severe
storms. The most likely hazards with any storms will be large
hail, damaging winds, and dangerous lightning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The general theme for the long term forecast remains the same
with a somewhat active period of weather expected through the
middle of the week. However, models have backed off on
precipitation chances from Friday into early next week.

On Wednesday, one shortwave will be exiting the area during the
morning with another expected to move through later in the day.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop off of a dryline
extending from the Panhandle, south into the Upper Trans Pecos
west of the Permian Basin. These storms will then move east
towards west central Texas. There is some question about how far
these storms will be able to progress into our area as instability
will weaken as the sun sets, but the LLJ should aid in sustaining
these storms into at least the central portions of our area
Wednesday night. The dryline is expected to set up once again
Thursday, with another round of scattered thunderstorms moving
east toward our area. As has been mentioned in previous
discussions, flooding could be an issue as much of the area
received rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 5 inches from Friday
through the weekend, and heavy rainfall may be embedded in these
storms.

From Friday into the weekend, models show a ridge developing to
our east, maintaining southwest flow aloft here. Although we will
continue to see a 20% to 30% chance for thunderstorm activity,
most of the upper level shortwave energy will impact areas farther
to the north, so the better chances will be over the Big Country
during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Thunderstorms are forecast to track across the area this evening
into the early morning hours Wednesday, so have included PROB30
groups at all of the sties. Gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain are
possible with any thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings will return to all
sites Wednesday morning, as stratus spreads north. Gusty south
winds this morning will decrease to 12 knots or less this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  78  63  80 /  50  50  50  60
San Angelo  61  80  62  80 /  40  40  50  50
Junction    62  81  63  83 /  50  40  30  50
Brownwood   62  79  62  82 /  40  70  40  70
Sweetwater  61  79  62  80 /  50  50  50  60
Ozona       63  77  63  79 /  40  30  60  50
Brady       63  79  63  80 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Daniels