294
FXUS64 KSJT 110541
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms, from north to
  south, Sunday through Monday. Marginal (5 percent) to Slight
  (15 percent) risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- Cooler temperatures first part of next week (Sunday into
  Tuesday), with hotter temperatures returning Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Upper level high pressure in control for today and tomorrow with
hot and buggy conditions prevailing. With temperatures rising well
into the 90s, perhaps pushing near 100 for areas northwest of
Abilene, heat index values will soar into the 100-105 range. May
briefly hit Heat Advisory criteria but looks like it would be
limited in area and for a short amount of time, so will not issue
the advisory quite yet.

May see a few isolated storms off to the northwest across the
South Plains as a dryline develops across the area, but do not
expect any of this activity to push far enough east and/or
southeast to make it into West Central Texas. Will give the next
shift something to monitor however just in case.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Weak ridge aloft builds back in for Friday and Saturday. A few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Big Country north
of I-20 on Friday, near the remnant boundary. Highs Saturday are
expected to be in the mid to upper 90s, but a few locations in the
Big Country may reach 100. Somewhat breezy south winds are
anticipated on Saturday.

A shift in the pattern is expected to bring increased rain chances,
and cooler temperatures for the first part of next week.  With an
upper ridge building over the eastern Pacific and a broad upper
trough over the northern and central Plains across the Midwest and
Great Lakes, the ridge over Texas will be suppressed to the south. A
couple of shortwaves are forecast to move southeast across the Red
River Valley and the northern half of Texas, and a cold front will
gradually push south across the area Sunday and Monday. This will
bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms from north to
south across the area. Moderate instability progged ahead of the
front but effective bulk shear will be weak to marginal. Cannot rule
out the possibility of a few strong to severe storms with strong,
gusty winds, hail and lightning the main hazards. A rather moist
airmass is progged with precipitable water values 1.5 to 2 inches
Sunday, and 1.75 to 2.1 inches Monday. Will have some threat for
flooding with heavy rainfall and slow-moving convection. The area
will have increased cloud cover and temperatures will be cooler
behind the front, especially on Monday. Highs Monday should be
confined to the 80s and some locations may not reach 80. Some rain
chance lingers into Tuesday mainly for the area south of I-20.

Indications are for hotter and drier conditions to redevelop
Wednesday and continue to a greater extent Thursday, as a ridge
aloft expands from the southwestern states east into Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

MVFR ceilings are again expected to develop in the early morning
hours. Cigs will scatter out by the late morning with VFR
conditions prevailing thereafter. Winds will continue out of the
south and be gusty in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  77  95  77 /   0  10  20   0
San Angelo  97  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   96  76  95  75 /   0  10   0   0
Sweetwater 100  76  96  76 /   0  20  10   0
Ozona       94  74  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       95  74  94  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...42