223
FXUS64 KSJT 072249
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
549 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions expected this weekend.

- Severe weather threat for at least the Big Country Sunday
  evening and Sunday night.

- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated for much of next week,
  with heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Our area is on the northern periphery of an upper high, which is
centered over northeastern Mexico and adjacent South Texas. From
visible satellite imagery and surface observations, a wavy east-west
outflow boundary was across the Big Country, extending from just
north of Moran to just south of Stamford, to between Snyder and
Sweetwater. Some of the hi-res models have been showing potential
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development in the
vicinity of this boundary in the western Big Country (Fisher and
Nolan Counties) this evening after 5-6 PM. Storms could then develop
or move east to southeast and affect the northern Concho Valley and
parts of the southern Big Country through late evening. With strong
instability and favorably strong vertical shear, have a conditional
risk of large to very large hail and damaging winds. Warm and humid
conditions are expected overnight with partly cloudy skies.
Overnight lows will be 71-75 degrees.

Temperatures will remain hot in our area on Sunday, with afternoon
highs expected to be mostly in the upper 90s to 102 degrees and
mostly sunny skies. Changes in the upper level pattern will begin to
take place on Sunday. A large upper low and trough will begin to
drop southeast into the upper Midwest from southern Canada, and
the flow aloft will begin to become more northwesterly over the
southern Plains and our area. A cold front will push south into
the Texas Panhandle in the afternoon. With this setup, thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the Texas Panhandle east into Oklahoma
in the mid-to-late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

By Sunday evening, storms should be ongoing to our northwest and
moving towards our northern counties. As we progress into the late
evening, storms are expected to congeal into an MCS and move
southeast across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. Models differ
on the southward extent of the MCS, with some keeping it just to our
north and others dragging it through much of the Big Country. We`ll
get a better idea of the storm coverage as we get closer, but right
now the biggest threat for our area is in the northern Big Country.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms, with
the potential for 75+ mph winds. However, large hail and QLCS
tornadoes will also be possible. The MCS is expected to move through
quickly, with a few trailing storms in the Big Country into the
early morning hours.

The long term will remain unsettled, with rain chances for much of
the next week. An upper trough will dig into the Midwest and
Northeast early next week, putting us in northwest flow aloft. This
set up will be favorable for disturbances to move over our area,
providing weak lift for showers and storms. At the surface, a front
will move in from the north before stalling around our forecast
area. This frontal boundary, along with residual outflow boundaries
from previous convection, could act to trigger storms in the
afternoon/evenings. A more prevalent shortwave will move through
late Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing potentially heavy rainfall.
Rain chances will continue on Thursday, before weakening on Friday
as the shortwave moves off to the northeast.

We will have to monitor any storms that develop over the next week
for severe potential. Instability and shear look to be sufficient
enough for strong to severe storms most afternoon/evenings in the
long term, but we`ll get a better idea of severe potential as we get
closer. The exact location of heaviest rainfall is uncertain, but
models are showing portions of our forecast area receiving 3+ inches
over the next week. We have a marginal to slight risk of excessive
rainfall each day through Thursday morning. Areas which receive back
to back days of rainfall will be at the highest risk of flash
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the TAF
period. Expect some minor wind gusts by late tomorrow (Sunday)
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  99  69  86 /  20  10  40  30
San Angelo  73 101  70  93 /  10   0  10  20
Junction    73  98  70  96 /   0   0   0  20
Brownwood   72  97  69  89 /   0   0  30  30
Sweetwater  74 101  68  86 /  20  10  30  30
Ozona       72  98  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
Brady       73  97  71  93 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...41