522
FXUS64 KSJT 020513
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across southern
  potions of West Central Texas Saturday afternoon and evening.
  Locally heavy rainfall is the main concern.

- Showers and thunderstorms are also possible Sunday into Monday.
  Locally heavy rainfall is the main concern. A few strong to
  severe storms possible Sunday evening.

- Hot conditions expected to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Current surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
draped across the Concho Valley and Heartland. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop this
afternoon in the vicinity of this boundary. A weak shortwave aloft
is aiding in this development. The primary hazards with this
activity will be locally heavy rainfall (given PW values of
greater than 1.5 inches) and gusty outflow winds. Most convection
should die off with the loss of daytime heating although a few
storms could linger into the late evening hours. Another round of
scattered showers and storms is possible on Saturday with the
boundary lingering over our area and weak shortwaves moving
overhead. Once again locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will
be the primary hazards with these storms. Otherwise, highs will be
in the lower to mid 90s with relatively light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Rain chances continue to increase for Sunday and Sunday evening
across the area, as northwest flow becomes established across the
Southern Plains. Models are showing 2 rounds of convection
possible, the first will be the convection trying to slide south
into the area Sunday morning. Latest HRRR shows some of the
activity reaching as far south as I-20 around Abilene after
sunrise Sunday morning. Most of the CAMs show the next round of
convection developing across the South Plains Sunday afternoon and
making a hard run into the Big Country late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. With this convection coming closer to max heating
and with better instability to work with, this round may be the
stronger and more widespread area of convection. POPs have been
bumped up some for this time period and this will need to be
bumped up some more if the trend continues.

Upper level ridge is expected to expand in size starting on
Monday, even if the center itself stays over New Mexico. This
should cut off the rain chances and allow temperature to inch
higher again. As long as the center of the high doesn`t come
farther east, may be able to keep highs in the 95-103 range for
much of next week. If the center of the high does move farther
east into Texas, then highs will need to come up some as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible at KJCT and KSOA this
afternoon and have included a mentioned of thunder. Expect this
activity to dissipate by early evening. Winds will remain light
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  72  98  71 /  10   0  30  40
San Angelo  95  72  99  72 /  20  10  10  30
Junction    94  71  98  74 /  40  10  10  20
Brownwood   93  72  96  72 /  20   0  20  30
Sweetwater  94  73 101  71 /  10  10  30  30
Ozona       94  71  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
Brady       92  72  95  72 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Daniels