438
FXUS64 KSJT 062349 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
649 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few
  thunderstorms possible into tonight.

- Rain chances will continue Sunday into Monday, with dry
  conditions returning by Tuesday.

- Sunny and warm conditions expected for Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

A cold front has moved through the region, with much cooler
temperatures across the area this afternoon. Scattered showers
continue across the area early this afternoon. Expect this activity
to continue through the evening hours, with the higher rain chances
across our southern counties. High resolution models have overall
trended drier for the overnight and Sunday time frame. Although some
upper level Pacific moisture is streaming into the area, most of the
moisture associated with former tropical cyclone Lorena ended up
remaining across western Mexico. Still, a few showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through Sunday, mainly
across our southern counties, which could produce locally heavy
rainfall. Overall though, rain amounts are forecast to remain light
for most locations.

Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s for most
locations, with plenty of cloud cover expected. Highs on Sunday will
again be below seasonal normals, but several degrees warmer than
forecast highs today. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s for most
locations, with cloudy skies in the morning and some sun expected
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

The cold front that moved through the region on Friday night should
wash out by Sunday night.  The high pressure center located over the
Midwest that drove this front should move eastward Sunday night
through Monday.  In response, southerly flow will set up across west
central Texas and start to bring warm, moist air back into the
region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase, mainly
for southern counties, as instability returns. This could be
enhanced by a fast-moving upper-level shortwave progged to move
across Kansas and Oklahoma Monday evening.  Rainfall amounts look
low at this time, along with severe thunderstorm chances, but this
will be monitored.  Upper-level ridging will start to build back in
on Tuesday and strengthen for Wednesday through Friday.  This will
result in sunny skies with warm and dry conditions through the end
of the week.  High temperatures look to climb back into the mid 90s
Tuesday through Friday, which is just slightly above normal for mid-
September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

A few showers were occurring early this evening mainly south of a
Barnhart to Sonora to Junction line, with a few thunderstorms
along the southern Crockett County border. This convection was
moving east, and our southern terminals may have a brief rain
shower through late evening. Otherwise, for generally the southern
half of our area, a few showers are possible tonight into Sunday
with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Will monitor radar trends
and include in our TAFs as needed. Some low cloud cover is over
the southeastern part of our area this evening, and should expand
to the west tonight and early Sunday morning. Expect MVFR
ceilings with this low cloud cover, at KBBD, KJCT and KSOA.
Otherwise, considerable middle to high cloud cover will be over
our area tonight and Sunday. Northeast to east winds will decrease
to 4-6 knots this evening at KABI and KSJT, while becoming light
at our southern terminals. On Sunday, winds will be from the
northeast to east at 5-8 knots from mid-morning into the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  85  65  89 /  10  10   0  10
San Angelo  63  84  65  88 /  20  20  10  20
Junction    64  84  65  89 /  40  50  10  30
Brownwood   63  84  63  88 /  10  20   0  10
Sweetwater  63  86  65  90 /  10  20  10  10
Ozona       65  81  65  86 /  40  50  10  30
Brady       64  82  64  86 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19