459
FXUS64 KSJT 081951
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
151 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rain chances with localized flooding through early this
    evening.

  - A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Big Country and
    western Concho Valley through this afternoon. Localized flash
    flooding will occur in heavier showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Early this afternoon a strong upper-level low over New Mexico
continues to churn northeastward. A surface low, with an attendant
cold front, was moving eastward through central Texas. A line of
showers and thunderstorms along this frontal boundary was also
pushing eastward toward the I-35 corridor. Behind the system,
cooler air and clearing skies are expected overnight. Winds should
also decrease as surface high pressure fills in across the
region. The combination of clear skies and light winds with a
saturated ground could lead to some fog, especially in areas where
very heavy rainfall occurred. Regardless of fog, temperatures
should easily fall into the upper 30s to low 40s tonight. High
pressure should continue to fill in tomorrow allowing for sunny
skies with high temperatures around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The long term will be much drier and warmer than the short term. As
the low moves off to the northeast, we`ll have more zonal flow, with
some weak ridging aloft. This along with warm air advection from
southwesterly winds at the surface will help increase temperatures a
few degrees each afternoon through Tuesday. A cold front will move
through on Wednesday. Models are trending more towards an earlier
arrival, with the front moving through most of the area by late
Wednesday morning. The front will help drop temperatures back around
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rain chances remain low at
this time, with better chances off to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms gradually moving out this afternoon and
evening. MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR with winds
decreasing this evening. Towards sunrise, fog will be possible in
some locations that could reduce visibility below one mile at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     42  68  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  37  71  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    40  73  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   42  70  45  75 /  20   0   0   0
Sweetwater  43  68  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       39  71  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       42  69  46  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK