081
FXUS64 KSJT 240714
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
114 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Rain chances will continue tonight, with the potential for
   heavy rainfall and a few strong storms across the area.

-  A Flood Watch is in effect for the Concho Valley and much of
   the Heartland and Big Country through 8 AM Monday.

-  A cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Wednesday, with
   highs in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1247 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Currently, showers and thunderstorms are developing from Abilene
southwestward into the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards
Plateau. Large scale ascent ahead of a potent shortwave over the
Big Bend combined with strong shear and moderate instability will
lead to continued storm development overnight. Isolated large
hail will continue to be a concern with the strongest storms along
with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. All of this
activity should exit our area by the late morning as a Pacific
front sweeps across the area. Skies will clear in the afternoon
with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
drop into the 40s, with some of the river valleys and sheltered
areas in our southern counties dropping into the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A cold front will move through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The atmosphere looks too dry to support any rain chances with the
front at this time. However, it will bring cooler temperatures
and breezy northeast winds. Highs are forecast to drop into the
low 50s to low 60s for Wednesday afternoon. Winds will switch back
to the southeast for Thursday with weak ridging aloft, causing
highs to warm a few degrees for both Thursday and Friday. The
weather for Thanksgiving looks nice, with highs in the 60s, partly
cloudy skies, and winds around 10 mph from the south. Our next
chance for rain enters the forecast late Friday into Saturday as
another trough sets up over the southwest U.S. and a front
approaches from the north. There`s still quite a bit of
uncertainty with this system this far out, but right now the best
chance for rain looks to be to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will increase through the overnight
hours, especially at KABI and KSJT. Outside of these storms, IFR
ceilings and patchy mist can be expected. Storms will clear the
TAF sites by the mid morning hours. Ceilings will gradually
improve to VFR by the late morning hours as winds become westerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  45  72  39 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  73  43  72  38 /  30   0   0   0
Junction    76  42  76  40 /  60   0   0   0
Brownwood   74  43  72  39 /  80   0   0   0
Sweetwater  72  47  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       72  44  74  40 /  20   0   0   0
Brady       72  46  72  41 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 AM CST this morning for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-
Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...42