505
FXUS64 KSJT 080717
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
217 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible today in the
  southern part of our area.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and
  Thursday afternoons. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and
  lightning will be the main concerns. The lightning may also spark
  additional wildfires across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Early this morning an upper-level ridge of high pressure
remained the dominant feature over the southern Plains.
Temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s with generally light
southerly winds. Moisture levels will increase a bit today with
perhaps a stray shower or two developing in our southern counties
in the afternoon. Otherwise, high temperatures should be in the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees again today with the warmest
conditions across the Big Country. For now, heat indices look to
remain below 105 degrees so we do not plan on issuing a Heat
Advisory. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 70s
again.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Upper level ridge parked across the southeast US generally remains
in control across West Central Texas into next week. However, a
weakness in the ridge (or something more like an inverted trough)
brings better low level moisture into the area for Wednesday and
Thursday. Model blends show very little in the way of precip on
Wednesday afternoon, but CAMs like the RRFS and the HRRR are much
more aggressive with at least isolated POPs. Given that we have
seen some isolated showers each afternoon over the last few days,
seeing at least showers and storms with the better moisture seems
perfectly reasonable. Will add isolated POPs for Wednesday.

Thursday is a little different, as a weak surface boundary tries to
sag south into the area. Blends pick up on this boundary acting as a
focus and boost POPs into the 20-30% range. Will leave this as is
for now.

Upper ridge builds back into place after that and hot and dry
conditions return for the weekend. Longer range forecast for next
week is a bigger question, with some of the longer range solutions
showing at least some weakening in the strength of the ridge. Not
sure I believe this yet, given how strongly these ridges like to
hang on. But not going to argue with the blends bringing highs down
a few degrees into the mid 90s by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with light
southerly winds less than 10KT. An isolated shower or two could
occur between 21-03Z but confidence on this was low so this was
not included in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    100  78 100  77 /   0   0  10  10
San Angelo  99  74  99  74 /  10   0  10  10
Junction    98  72  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
Brownwood   98  73  97  72 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  10  10
Ozona       96  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
Brady       96  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SK