103
FXUS64 KSJT 052325
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
625 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms may approach areas near a Haskell to Ozona
  line this evening before dissipating.

- Hot and dry conditions expected this weekend.

- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated for at least the first
  half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Current radar imagery (1906z) shows initial thunderstorm
development occurring well off to our west near Fort Stockton.
Additional development is expected across western Texas this
afternoon and evening. Areas west of an Abilene to Ozona line are
outlooked for potential severe weather, which is indicated with
the Enhance Risk across the Big Country by the Storm Prediction
Center. However, those areas are mostly likely to see this
activity late in the afternoon into the evening (5 PM to Midnight
CDT). In fact, the majority of our short range CAMs (HRRR etc.)
seem to dissipate this stuff right as they get into our general
area. However, the eastward extent of this activity is in question
to a degree. If it hangs on long enough, we may be at risk of
seeing large hail (2"+), damaging winds (60-70 MPH), and a couple
of tornadoes. Moderate to high rainfall rates could also result in
excessive rainfall that causes flash flooding. This will be
especially true for locations that have already received lots of
rain over the last few days.

Otherwise, after this activity ends around midnight tonight, we
should see a break in the thunderstorm activity for the most part.
We have low (<20%) rain chances across Haskell and Throckmorton
Counties on Friday evening. We expect most of the activity to
remain to the north of these locations. However, an isolated
thunderstorm is certainly not something we can rule out. It is
worth noting that the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked some
of the northern portions of the Big Country with a Marginal Risk
for severe weather. Large hail (golfball size), excessive
rainfall, and damaging winds (60 MPH range) will be the main
concerns yet again. Highs will also be a bit warmer for Friday as
most locations will be in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Upper level ridge will develop over northern Mexico and South Texas
this weekend, with mainly hot and dry conditions for most of West
Central Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop north of the
area on Saturday, with a slight chance that a few storms may reach
the Big Country during the evening hours. Otherwise hot and dry
conditions expected, with highs both days in the upper 90s to around
100 degrees and overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday evening and overnight, as
northwest flow aloft develops and a cold front moves into the Big
Country from the north. Thunderstorm chances will persist into early
next week, as several disturbances affect the region and the front
drifts farther south. Low rain chances will persist through the mid
to late week time frame, along the considerably cooler temperatures.
Daytime highs are expected to be in the mid and upper 80s on Tuesday
and mainly upper 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows
will be cooler as well, with lows mainly in the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Generally VFR conditions this evening underneath a rather large
anvil overspreading the region at or above 12,000ft. A low (<20%)
chance exists for a brief thunderstorm or two near Sweetwater and
Abilene from 03-06Z but this was left out of the Abilene TAF due
to low confidence. MVFR ceilings are likely to build in from the
south again towards daybreak, with just scattered low clouds for
San Angelo and Brady. Ceilings should improve to VFR with
increasing southerly winds after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  94  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  72  94  72  97 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    70  93  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   71  93  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  73  95  74  99 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona       71  92  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       71  92  72  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK