323
FXUS64 KSJT 040607
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
107 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures for Wednesday, before a warming trend into
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A cold front was moving through the area early this morning,
resulting in thunderstorms across parts of our Heartland area, and
also a few showers in the Concho Valley. North of the front, winds
are out of the north at 15 to 25 mph, with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s, and temperatures mainly in the 60s. South of the front, the
air is still muggy and warm, with temperatures in the mid to upper
70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue developing along the front as
it moves south through our area until around sunrise. However, the
best chance for precipitation will be east of a Coleman to Junction
line. The front should be south of the area shortly after sunrise,
and with it most of our area`s rain chances, but there could be a
few lingering showers along our I-10 corridor. We will also have
quite a few morning clouds across the area, but should become partly
cloudy by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today,
with highs mainly in the 80s. For tonight, the forecast will
remain free of precipitation, but persistent east to southeasterly
winds this afternoon through tonight will increase low level
moisture, pushing dewpoints back up into the mid 60s to around 70,
and thus overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A high aloft will build into southern Texas for the start of the
long term. With this ridging we`ll see lower rain chances and warmer
temperatures for the end of this work week and the weekend. However,
even with the high building in, portions of our area could see some
rain. For Thursday and Friday, storms are forecast to develop to our
west/northwest as upper level shortwaves move through and the
dryline is set up near the Texas/New Mexico border. Storms that form
have the potential to move east/southeast into our area before
dissipating. High Res models show a complex of storms forming over
the panhandle early Thursday morning and progressing into the Big
Country in the late morning and early afternoon, before
weakening. For the weekend, we could see a few storms move into
the Big Country from the north in the late evenings and overnight,
however, most of this activity is expected to remain out of our
area.

The ridge will start to break down late this weekend, as a large
trough pushes into the Midwest and east coast. This will put us in
northwest flow aloft for the start of next week. A series of upper
level disturbances, warm air advection, and a weak surface boundary
over the area will all help increase our rain chances Monday and
Tuesday. With the break down of the ridge and increased cloud cover,
temperature for Monday and Tuesday will be slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have increased along the front and will
move southward through 11Z. After this line passes, ceilings will
drop to MVFR and even IFR for some locations and persist through
at least 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  70  90  74 /   0  20  30  10
San Angelo  84  70  92  71 /  10  10  10  10
Junction    89  69  93  69 /  20   0   0   0
Brownwood   82  69  90  71 /  10   0  10   0
Sweetwater  84  70  92  74 /   0  20  30  10
Ozona       88  71  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       83  70  90  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK