445
FXUS64 KSJT 011121
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  develop across the Big Country this afternoon.

- Localized heavy rainfall could occur with any strong cells that
  develop.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Wednesday through Friday, with warm and humid conditions
  persisting.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Another humid day is expected with chances for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms as west central Texas remains in weak troughing.
The upper-level trough, consisting mainly of the remnants of
Tropical Storm Barry, will continue to push a moist gulf airmass
into west central Texas. At the surface, the cold front that
reached the I-20 corridor yesterday evening should remain in place
through the day. Low-level flow should lift moisture over this
boundary and allow another round of showers and storms to develop
across the Big Country this afternoon. PWAT values look a bit
lower today (around 1.8 inches) than yesterday (over 2 inches),
but localized flooding is still possible, especially for areas
that saw heavy rainfall yesterday. Further south, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly where pockets of
greatest heating occur. Extensive cloud cover today, albeit
broken, should result in high temperatures ranging from the mid
80s to low 90s. Chances for showers should continue into the
evening before diminishing after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A subtropical ridge to the east of the region will keep broad
southerly flow from the surface up to 500mb, and will continue
the influx of Gulf moisture into West Central Texas the end of
this week. Generally this will keep warm and humid conditions, as
well as some scattered showers and thunderstorm chances in the
forecast through the end of the week. While severe weather is not
expected, precipitable water values will be high (1.50 to 2+
inches), which will contribute to locally heavy downpours and
increase potential for flooding with the stronger storms. Expect
slightly below normal temperatures through the end of the week
due to the increase in humidity and cloud cover, with highs in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Warmest temperatures are expected across the
Big Country and northern portions of the Concho Valley and
Heartland.

The ridge will gradually shift back westward across the region by
the weekend, decreasing precipitation chances slightly and
bringing some warmer afternoon high temperatures to the area
through Monday. High temperatures over the weekend and into early
next week will climb back into the mid to upper 90s, with warm
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR to occasional MVFR conditions should improve 15Z-18Z. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will increase after 20Z, mainly for
Sweetwater and Abilene.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  73  89  72 /  30  40  20  20
San Angelo  89  70  85  71 /  30  40  30  30
Junction    89  70  87  70 /  30  30  40  20
Brownwood   93  73  91  71 /  20  20  10  10
Sweetwater  89  72  87  71 /  40  50  30  30
Ozona       81  68  81  70 /  30  40  40  40
Brady       90  70  87  70 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK