724
FXUS64 KSJT 060002 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
602 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record, or near record, high temperatures are anticipated at
  Abilene and San Angelo for much of this week.

- Colder temperatures next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Clouds have cleared as the cold front has returned to the north
as a warm front for most of the area. This has resulted in
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s along and south of
Interstate 20. Just after 2 PM, the front could be seen in radar
imagery just south of a line from Albany to Stamford to near
Jayton. Expect the front to make it at least partially into
Haskell and Throckmorton counties by the end of the day.

For tonight, with south winds prevailing over most of the area,
and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, lows will only fall into the mid
50s to lower 60s. We will also likely see another round of low
clouds extending into the Big Country during the morning hours,
eventually clearing by mid afternoon. While most of the area will
be well above normal again, with highs in the low to mid 80s, the
frontal boundary is expected to sag back to the south somewhat
tonight, and keep areas roughly east of a Haskell to Albany line
in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Expect much above normal temperatures this week into Saturday across
much of west central Texas with highs 20 to 25 degrees above normal.
There is high to very high chance(70 to 90%) of new daily record
highs for Abilene and San Angelo. The combination of low level
southerly flow and upper level zonal flow will result in very warm
and dry conditions leading to record heat. Highs will be mainly in
the 80s with a low chance(10 to 30%) of around 90 at a few locations
Saturday. However, a change to cooler weather for Sunday through the
middle of next week. A significant cold front will move through our
area Sunday. Highs Sunday will range from the 50s in the Big Country
to the upper 70s along the I-10 corridor, cooling to mainly 40s and
50s to a few lower 60s I-10 corridor early next week. Expect lows
finally at or below freezing across much of the area next Tuesday
morning as a shallow arctic airmass settles in. The GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members are still indicating a wide range of
temperatures for much of next week. There is a low chance(10 to
30%) of temperatures being 5 to 10 degrees colder early next week.

A developing storm system over the Southern Plains early next week
will bring low chances(20 to 40%) of showers and a few
thunderstorms to the much of area. Rainfall amounts look light at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Initially clear skies and VFR conditions will give way to
increasing low cloud development overnight. Expect low cloud
development over the southern half of our area between Midnight
and 3 AM, followed by northward development and expansion of
low cloud coverage into early Thursday morning. For most of our
TAF sites, expect MVFR ceilings mostly 1k-2k ft. For KSOA, expect
low end MVFR ceilings lowering to less than 1000ft by 12Z.
Low cloud cover should break up around mid-morning. Initially
gusty south-southwest winds early this evening will decrease
through late evening and early tonight. During much of the day
Thursday, expect south to southwest winds 8-12 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  83  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  60  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    58  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   58  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  58  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       58  82  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       61  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19