871
FXUS64 KSJT 150559
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some producing
  heavy rainfall, through Thursday evening. A moderate to high
  risk of excessive rainfall today through Thursday morning south
  of the I-20 corridor.

- A Flood Watch in effect for the Northern Edwards Plateau,
  Northwest Hill Country, and southern portions of the Concho
  Valley and Heartland continues through Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...Potentially heavy rainfall event still possible or even likely
for portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau and perhaps
Northwest Hill Country for tonight into Wednesday morning...

All the features that have been mentioned in the last few
forecasts are still there, a weak MCV spinning across the area in
a high precipitable water air mass with a low level jet
developing overnight. Always difficult to find the MCV when the
convection is going full blown, it shows up better as the
convection dissipates during the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Thus, it now appears that the MCV location is showing up
between Del Rio and the Sutton/Crockett County line. Where this
MCV goes from here is still uncertain, with weak flow aloft
meaning it will likely meander around across the area this evening
and into the overnight hours.

Wherever the MCV wanders tonight, a 20-30kt low level jet will
develop on its east side and convection with very heavy rainfall
will blossom. Some models have this staying south of SJT`s area,
while others have the MCV farther west and allowing this area of
heavy rainfall to develop as far north as Crockett and Sutton
Counties. This area saw anywhere from 3 to 5+ inches of rain
overnight (and 5 to 9 inches over the last 2 days). Its so rocky
across the southern half of the area that having the soil
saturated doesn`t make much difference with flash flood potential,
but the soil is definitely saturated anyway and normally dry
creeks are full. The evolution from heavy rainfall to flash
flooding happens even faster in these situations. Situation will
need to be monitored very closely and people should be prepared to
take quick actions should flash flood warnings be issued for
their area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
continue on Thursday. Upper level low is forecast to track across
our area this afternoon and then slide southwestward into the Big
Bend region on Thursday. Meanwhile, a very moist airmass will
remain in place, with precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2+
inches across west central Texas. Given the favorable lift and
moist airmass these storms will be very efficient rainfall
producers. Convection will likely by ongoing Wednesday night and
continuing into Thursday morning. Where exactly the MCV is
positioned is the big question mark. Nevertheless, model guidance
continues to ping the axis of heaviest rainfall over the northern
Edwards Plateau, possibly spreading northward into the Concho
Valley- aided by a low level jet as hinted at by the NAM. The
heavy rainfall threat may well linger into Friday although the
focus for heaviest rainfall appears to shift to the west of the
area by Friday evening. High pressure begins to build back into
the region over the weekend and into early next week. This will
result in mainly dry conditions from Saturday into the middle of
next week. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 90s as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Satellite and radar images as well as surface observations
indicate convection continues to develop just south of the CWA
late tonight. Mid to high level clouds were across southern
portions of the CWA with relatively clear skies across the Big
Country. Ceilings were near 7500ft at KJCT to near 8500ft at KBBD.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail the rest of tonight but MVFR to
IFR conditions will develop by early Wednesday morning as
convection develops across portions of the northern Edwards
Plateau and the northwest Hill Country as a 500mb low across west
central Texas and abundant low level moisture across the area allows
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southern half of
the CWA by Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     85  68  84  70 /  40  40  50  50
San Angelo  81  65  81  67 /  80  80  60  80
Junction    82  66  83  68 /  90  90  60  60
Brownwood   83  68  83  69 /  60  50  50  40
Sweetwater  83  66  82  68 /  40  40  60  70
Ozona       80  64  80  66 /  90  90  70  90
Brady       80  66  81  68 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Concho-Crockett-Irion-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20