601
FXUS64 KSJT 040534
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1234 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  persist across the area this afternoon and evening.

- A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for much of West Central
  Texas along and south of i-20.Heavy rainfall is possible with
  the stronger cells, which may result in localized flooding.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Complicated forecast for West Central Texas the next 24 hours.
Latest radar shows a large area of showers and storms moving into
the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau and this will continue to
spread northeast across much of West Central Texas into the
evening hours. This activity will continue to move, and likely to
produce fairly widespread 1/2 inch to 1 inch totals through
sunset, with heavier pockets of 1 to 2 inches possible. This is
Round 1 of the precipitation chances.

Round 2 is possible late tonight and into Friday morning and is
the more uncertain one, in coverage and location as well as
rainfall totals. The hi res models have continued to hit on a
heavier band developing across some portion of the area, most
likely east of an Abilene to San Angelo to Sonora line and focused
more of the Hill County and Heartland. This is when an MCV noted
across the Trans Pecos this afternoon drifts farther east and
interacts with a 30 or 35kt low level jet, potentially producing
an enhanced area of lift that spawns training of storms across a
30 or 40 mile wide band. If this happens in this air mass (with
precipitable water values soaring well above normal values)
rainfall could be torrential and flash flooding would develop very
quickly. Still, these features are so weak and the interaction so
complicated, if and where this band develops remains uncertain.

Given the pockets of heavier rainfall this afternoon and evening,
and the potential for a lower probability but much higher impact
flood event overnight, opted to run a Flash Flood Watch from this
afternoon through sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Rain chances will gradually decrease across West Central Texas
through the weekend, as the upper-level ridge shifts back westward
and winds aloft begin switching to a more drier northerly flow
pattern. Isolated or widely scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly diurnally driven, will still be possible this weekend.
With less cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will be warmer
than what our area is currently seeing, but still slightly below
normal for July. Expect highs to be mostly in the mid 80s to
mid 90s this weekend, with continued humid conditions.

Drier and Warmer temperatures are expected to kick off the work
week next week, as the upper-level high continues to build across
the area and center over the Four Corners area on Tuesday. Our
area will be on its eastern periphery of this system, but will
heavily influence the forecast for the area through much of next
week. Expect afternoon highs to start off in the lower to mid 90s
in the early to middle parts of the week, and then climb into the
mid 90s and into the triple digits by the end of the week. Little
to no rain chances are expected for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings through Friday morning at the terminals.
The ceiling will rise to mainly low end VFR by Friday afternoon.
Also, scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo to Junction
line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  72  88  72 /  60  10  30  20
San Angelo  86  71  90  72 /  60  10  20  10
Junction    82  70  87  70 /  70  20  30  10
Brownwood   80  72  85  71 /  70  20  30  20
Sweetwater  88  72  92  72 /  50  10  20  10
Ozona       85  70  89  70 /  40  20  10  10
Brady       80  70  84  70 /  70  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21