245
FXUS64 KSJT 040013
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
713 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional severe thunderstorms are expected after midnight
  tonight.

- Widespread thunderstorms are expected again on Friday night and
  Saturday morning. Some of these may also reach severe levels.

- A brief light freeze may be possible both Sunday and Monday
  mornings in low lying and protected areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A broad upper level trough will remain across the Four Corners
region. However, an embedded disturbance in the flow will cross
through our area tonight. This will bring another round of
thunderstorms across the area. The Storm Prediction Center has
included most of our area in a Slight Risk of severe weather. In
fact, this activity is likely to be severe with large hail (up to
baseball size) and damaging winds (60-70 MPH) being the main
concerns. There remains a low risk (5% chance) for excessive
rainfall leading to flash flooding per the Weather Prediction
Center. Expect the majority of the coverage to occur after
midnight tonight as clusters of thunderstorms develop and move
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
area Friday from late evening into the overnight hours, as the
upper trough to the west approaches West Texas. Strong elevated
instability, combined with very strong deep layer shear will
support elevated supercells Friday night, with damaging winds and
large to very large hail (golfball to baseball) possible with the
strongest cells Models show the majority of the convection will
hold off until after midnight and persist into early Saturday
morning before moving east of the area. In addition to the severe
threat, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, which may result
in localized flooding. Additional showers and storms are expected
during the day on Saturday but the threat for severe storms will
diminish. Precipitation is expected to end Saturday evening across
northern sections, as the upper trough swings through.

A drier and cooler airmass will filter in behind the upper system
over the weekend, then a warming trend will take place next week,
with near to above normal temperatures returning. Could see a
light freeze Saturday night and again Sunday night, as
temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s for overnight lows.
Highs Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in the 50s, warming into
the lower 70s by Monday and into the low to mid 80s by mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Southern terminals will start VFR this evening, while KSJT and
KABI are in the MVFR category or high end IFR. We are still
expecting another night of multiple rounds of thunderstorms to
affect nearly the entire area late tonight into Friday morning.
Have addressed these thunderstorm chances with a combination of
TEMPO and PROB groups. Expect the bulk of the TSRA to end by 12Z
Friday morning, with IFR to even LIFR conditions at times
throughout the day tomorrow. Prevailing winds will remain
northeasterly around 10 knots, with gusts to around 20 knots at
times tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     51  61  48  53 /  80  70 100  80
San Angelo  51  65  48  57 /  80  50 100  70
Junction    56  75  49  64 /  60  50 100  40
Brownwood   52  66  49  59 /  70  70 100  60
Sweetwater  50  60  47  51 /  90  70 100  90
Ozona       54  69  50  59 /  80  40  90  60
Brady       56  68  50  59 /  70  60 100  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20