395
FXUS64 KSJT 250855
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
255 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Temperatures much cooler today in the wake of a morning cold
    frontal passage.

 -  A stronger cold front arrives late Wednesday, bringing cooler
    conditions for Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

The temperature forecast for our area is tricky for today with a
fairly strong cold frontal passage this morning, and overnight
tonight with winds dropping off and the extent of radiational
cooling.

An upper trough over the northern and central Plains will move east
into the Midwest today. Associated cold front will advance south
across the Big Country early this morning to near I-20 by 6 AM. The
front will continue moving south across our area this morning, and
should be just south of I-10 by Noon. Breezy north winds will follow
passage of this cold front, and temperatures will be much cooler
compared to yesterday. Expect highs today to range from the mid 50s
across the Big Country, to the upper 60s to lower 70s in our far
southern counties. Skies overall will be mostly sunny with some
patchy high clouds traversing the area.

North-northeast winds will decrease tonight and become light in the
predawn hours. A surface high pressure ridge will settle south and
extend from Missouri southwest into west-central Texas by 6 AM
Tuesday. With dry air in place, radiational cooling overnight will
allow temperatures to drop into the 30s toward daybreak. Our area
should still have patchy high clouds overspreading the area, and the
thickness/coverage could have a slight limiting effect on how cold
it gets. At this time, going with lows generally in the mid 30s,
with a few lower 30s possible in some favored low-lying areas. Some
patchy frost is not out of the question if dewpoints do not drop
below the lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Surface high across the area Tuesday morning shifts east by the
afternoon, as a lee trough starts to develop out to the west.
Warmer by Tuesday afternoon with highs rebounding up into the mid
60s to lower 70s across the area. Winds stay up Tuesday night and
help keep overnights lows up as well, with lows only in the 50s.

Next shortwave races into the Plains for Wednesday and Thursday,
with a much stronger surface cold front arriving. Front should
make into the northern Big Country by late Wednesday afternoon and
through all of West Central Texas Wednesday night. Given the
timing of the front from even the faster NAM solution, front does
not arrive until after max heating when compressional heating and
downslope flow are playing a role. NBM highs are on the high side
of the probabilistic forecasts but given the timing, this seems
perfectly reasonable and will keep highs in the 80s for most
areas.

Much colder Thursday and Thursday night with a tight clustering of
forecast temperatures amongst the ensemble members leading to
improved confidence. Highs on Thursday staying in the 50s. Vast
majority of the ensemble members have lows somewhere in about a
5-7 degree range from the upper 20s to mid 30s Friday morning so
at least a medium chance of a more widespread frost or light
freeze. NBM actually came in near the lower boundary of
reasonable coldest temperatures and that also seems like a good
solution for now.

Fast zonal flow prevails through the weekend, so after a brief
warmer day on Saturday, another front drops temperatures for
Sunday. Rain chances still look slim.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions expected through 06Z Tue. Pockets of LLWS possible
across the region tonight through 12Z due to S to SW winds of
30-35 KT at around 2000 FT AGL. Otherwise, at the surface, expect
SW winds of 5-10 KT continuing through around 11Z. 11Z through
17Z, a fast-moving cold front will move down from north to south,
bringing N to NNE winds of 12-18 KT with gusts of 18-25 KT behind
it, with those winds continuing through 00Z Tue, with gusts and
sustained wind speeds decreasing a little after 00Z Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     55  33  63  53 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  62  34  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    72  35  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   59  33  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  55  37  63  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       67  34  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       63  35  68  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SJH