200
FXUS64 KSJT 151104
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
604 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and generally dry weather
  expected through the end of the work week.

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return this weekend along
  with temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Skies were clear across west central Texas early this morning
with mild temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds were
from the south at 5 to 10 MPH. At the upper-levels, a 596 dam
ridge was centered over the southeastern US while a trough axis
was located over the west coast. This placed west central Texas in
weak southwest flow aloft. At the surface a low pressure system
with a stalled frontal boundary was located over the central
Plains with surface troughing located from the Panhandle
southwestward across New Mexico. This setup should keep breezy
southerly winds in place across much of our region again today.
Gusts in some locations could exceed 25 MPH this afternoon and
evening. Unseasonably warm temperatures should occur again with
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Winds should decrease
overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. will expand
westward into our area from Wednesday through Saturday. The ridge
will not be quite as strong as it has been the last week, but
temperatures will still be well above normal- in the mid 90s to
near 100 degrees. As mentioned in the previous AFD a pattern shift
late in the weekend into early next week. An upper level trough is
forecast to deepen over the Rockies which will help to weaken the
upper ridge and send a frontal boundary into our area. There
remains uncertainty in how the large scale pattern will evolve
early next week so will stick with the model blends for this
forecast package. By Monday highs are forecast to be closer to
seasonal normals (upper 80s to lower 90s) with a 30-50% chance of
scattered showers on both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected today although some brief MVFR
ceilings could occur through 15Z this morning around Junction.
Otherwise, southerly winds will increase to around 15KT with some
gusts over 25KT this afternoon. Winds should diminish after 00Z
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    101  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 100  72 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    99  69  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  100  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 101  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       97  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       97  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SK