171
FXUS64 KSJT 020521
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week.

- Rain chances return by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Slightly warmer and drier conditions are expected across much of
West Central Texas through Tonight, with weak high pressure starting
to build over the region and starting a brief warming trend. A weak
cold front will track through the Big Country this afternoon but the
front will be dry, with only a wind shift and slightly cooler
temperatures behind it. High temperatures today will be in the upper
80s to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2025

Warm and dry conditions should be the main story for Wednesday
through Friday as a drier airmass will be in place during this time.
While temperatures look to be near seasonal norms (low 90s) for
Wednesday, stronger thermal ridging looks to set up for Thursday and
Friday.  This should lead to highs in the upper 90s to around 100
both days.

Our attention shifts to the weekend where a pattern change is in
store.  Models remain in good agreement of an upper-level trough
centered just north of the Great Lakes that will dig southward into
the eastern US and push a surface cold front into north Texas on
Saturday.  This setup would increase chances for rain this weekend,
but as always, the devil is in the details. Both models show an
upper-level shortwave trough approaching Texas from the west on
Saturday, however, there are significant differences on the level of
dynamic support and how much moisture will be in play.  The past
several runs of the GFS have toyed with bringing a tropical
depression, which is forecast to become a tropical storm, from near
the west coast of Mexico into west Texas on Saturday. The European
is now in more agreement with the GFS of bringing this disturbance
into the region, but as a much weaker system.  As a result, rain
chances from the GFS are much higher than the European.  So we turn
to the ensembles which show PWATs of 1-1.5 inches, indicative of a
fairly moist airmass.  While this setup has the potential for heavy
rainfall Saturday night through Sunday, there is still quite a bit
of uncertainty with how everything will play out. For now, trends
and probabilities will be monitored for better model agreement over
the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Patchy fog is
possible after 11Z at KJCT and KBBD, which may result in a brief
reduction in visibilities through 16Z. Expect winds to remain light
through the much of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     93  66  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  92  66  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    92  65  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   91  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  93  66  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       92  66  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       89  66  91  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP