128
FXUS64 KSJT 111123
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
523 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions today. A Red Flag Warning is in
  effect for all of West Central Texas for this afternoon.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures return for the middle to latter
  part of the week.

- Cooler temperatures and rain chances return this weekend into
  early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Fire weather the primary concern for the short term, mainly for
this afternoon. Surface high has shifted well east of the area and
south winds will be increasing into the afternoon hours.
Developing lee trough west of the area will sharpen the pressure
gradient and allow wind speeds to increase into the 15 to 25 mph
range, with a few gusts to 35 mph. Dry air mass remains and with
temperatures climbing into the 70s across most of the area,
afternoon humidity values will fall to near or below 20%. Red
Flag Warning already in place and will leave it going through this
afternoon.

As mentioned, much warmer today with the south to southwest winds
providing a little downslope as well. Highs reaching into the
mid/upper 70s for the northern half of the area, and lower 70s
along the I-10 corridor. Wind speeds ease up overnight but stay in
the 5-10 mph at least and this will again be enough to keep
overnight lows up in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue Wednesday
through Friday, as upper-level high pressure builds across the
area. High temperatures are expected to reach up into the mid to
upper 80s, both Thursday and Friday before gradually returning to
the 70s by the end of next weekend and early next week. Rain
chances begin to increase on Saturday and continue into Sunday as
the upper low eventually moves eastward across Colorado or New
Mexico and into the Plains. Given the current uncertainty in the
models, we will continue with 20 to 40 percent chance of rain over
the weekend, and continue to monitor this system as it approaches
closer to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Wednesday morning. South winds will increase mid morning
with gusts at or above 25 knots likely through the afternoon. Wind
speeds will decrease by sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  49  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  74  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   75  43  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  77  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       70  43  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       73  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...07