295
FXUS64 KSJT 192310
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1
  to 3 inches this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Strong
  winds of 50 to 60 mph also possible.

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the
  highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorm were developing early this
afternoon...with surface heating and as a weak disturbance aloft
moved west across South Texas. Activity was developing a couple
hours earlier than the short term convective models indicated, so
increased showers and thunderstorm chances across West Central
Texas this afternoon into early evening. Precipital water values
are 1.5 to 1.8 inches, so localized tropical like downpours
possible with little or very slow movement with storms.

A similar atmospheric setup in store for Wednesday, but a weak
cold front will be moving slowly into the region during the
morning. A few storms possible in the morning, but the better
chance will be in the afternoon with surface heating. Best rain
chances will be south of I-20. The front will have minimal affect
on temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Again, a
tropical-like atmosphere will be in place Wednesday, with
localized heavy rainfall and strong winds near storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The axis of the upper level ridge will remain centered over the
Four Corners on Thursday keeping west central Texas in northeast
flow aloft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible on Thursday afternoon as another shortwave dives down
into west Texas. The upper ridge builds a little further eastward
on Friday and into the weekend. Highest PoPs on Friday (20-30%)
will be confined mainly to the northwest Hill Country and northern
Edwards Plateau. Mainly dry conditions will prevail over the
weekend, with rain chances confined to our far southern counties.
The pattern could become more active early next week as the ridge
breaks down and a cold front moves into the Red River Valley.
Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will generally be in the mid
90s, with some upper 90s in the Concho Valley Big Country. Early
next week temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms should dissipate through 02Z.
Otherwise, light and variable winds with VFR conditions are
anticipated overnight. After 12Z Wednesday, a southward-moving
frontal boundary will result in wind shifts out of the north and
northeast for all TAF sites between 15-20Z. Chances for more
showers and storms will increase through the day, especially after
18Z and along this front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75  96  72  97 /  20  30  20  20
San Angelo  72  96  70  95 /  20  40  30  40
Junction    69  97  70  95 /  20  30  30  50
Brownwood   73  95  71  95 /  20  50  30  40
Sweetwater  75  96  72  97 /  20  40  20  20
Ozona       70  95  70  94 /  20  40  30  50
Brady       72  94  71  93 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...04