877
FXUS64 KSJT 121724
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch now in Effect for all of West Central Texas this
  afternoon through Sunday morning

- Rain chances increase through tonight/Sunday.

- A drying/warming trend begins Monday, and continues throughout
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...Flash Flood Watch 1 PM this afternoon into Sunday morning...

Complex of thunderstorm approaching Lubbock may move into the
Concho Valley this afternoon. Earlier versions of the HRRR model
had the complex moving into the the Concho Valley, but the 5Z
weakens it before reaching West Central Texas. Still, the complex
appears to be holding together, so the flash flood watch was
updated to start at 1 PM to reflect the potential earlier heavy
rainfall.

The main complex of storms is still expect to affect the region
tonight, as an upper shortwave moves southeast into the Big
Country this evening and across the rest of West Central Texas
overnight. PWATs increase 1.5 inches this afternoon to 2 inches
overnight. Some models like the NAM focus very heavy rainfall
over 6 inches toward and after midnight in the Concho Valley and
into Sunday morning, with even 8 inches in some areas. Confidence
is only low to medium on this very heavy rainfall amounts, however,
but any heavy rainfall will affect already flooded areas. The GFS
indicated mainly 2 inches or less. There is the potential for an
isolated severe thunderstorm today and tonight, mainly as
isolated severe gust and marginally severe hail (up to quarter
diameter). Main concern will be flooding.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

On Sunday, West Central Texas will remain in between an upper level
ridge to the west and another to the east. A weak upper level low is
forecast to be located somewhere across northwest Texas. Given this
setup, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Precipitable water values are forecast to be between 1.6 and 2
inches, so heavy rainfall will be possible. A Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect for most of West Central Texas from Saturday
afternoon through Sunday afternoon. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will also be possible, with damaging winds being the
main hazard. Highs on Sunday will be well below seasonal normals, in
the mid 80s to near 90. A similar synoptic patter is expected on
Monday, so scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible,
with the highest rain chances across our northern and Western
counties. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible. Highs will
continue to be below seasonal normals in the upper 80s to near 90.

As we head into Tuesday, upper level ridging across the Southeast
United States will begin to shift a bit to the west. This will
result in drier conditions across our eastern counties, although at
least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
across our western counties. The aforementioned upper level ridge
will steadily shift west through the end of the week. This will
result in rain chances slowly shifting west and temperatures slowly
increasing. Highs by the end of the work week will be in the low to
mid 90s, which is still a few degrees below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Central Texas
early this afternoon, with a more widespread area across the
Permian Basin. All of this is slow moving and none of it looks
like it will be affecting any of the terminals over the next few
hours. After that, short term models and the CAMs are all over the
place or when and where the convection may be overnight, with
little run to run continuity. Will include some tempo and prob30
groups into the aviation forecast where there is some
concentration of POPs but otherwise, this is a low confidence
forecast in the details of how this all evolves. Otherwise, mostly
MVFR to low even VFR cigs will prevail away from any storms, with
winds mainly out of the southeast and south at around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  70  85  71 /  40  60  50  40
San Angelo  91  70  86  70 /  30  50  60  50
Junction    91  70  89  70 /  30  30  50  30
Brownwood   89  70  85  71 /  30  50  60  40
Sweetwater  91  69  87  70 /  50  60  40  40
Ozona       91  69  87  70 /  40  50  50  50
Brady       88  70  85  70 /  30  40  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07