074
FXUS64 KSJT 041856
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
156 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of West Central Texas
  along and south of i-20 until 7 PM this evening. Widespread
  flooding is ongoing and expected to continue into the evening.
  Additional rainfall is possible this afternoon.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The precipitation is now primarily confined to our southeastern
counties this afternoon as the MCV spins near San Saba and Mason
Counties. We have a few showers trying to go up near Brownwood and
the eastern Big Country as warm, moist air is pushed northward
around the low. Rain could continue in the Northwest Hill Country
and Heartland into the evening. Most likely additional rainfall
totals will be around 0.5 to 2 inches for this area, however there
is a small chance for totals to increase by another ~4 inches. High
res models are also hinting at some potential convection on the
backside of the MCV later this afternoon near the Concho Valley,
however confidence in this convection is lower than that in our
southeastern counties. Rain chances and coverage will decrease
around sunset. Due to the rainfall last night and today (14+ inches
in some areas), we have multiple rivers in moderate to major flood
stage, numerous impassable streets, and homes filled with water. Any
additional rainfall today will be very concerning, especially for
areas near rivers. People are urged to stay off of the roads unless
absolutely necessary.

There is potential for a few scattered storms to develop in the late
morning through the early evening across West Central Texas
tomorrow. The highest chance for storms will be across our
southeastern counties tomorrow. Moisture will still be readily
available, as PW values sit around 1.5 to 2.5 inches. WPC will be
introducing a slight risk of excessive rainfall into our area for
Saturday, as any additional heavy rainfall will lead to or enhance
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

On Sunday, although rain chances will be decreasing, there is
still a chance for isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms for the entire area. However,
not all locations will actually see rainfall, and rainfall amounts
will be nowhere near what we have seen the last 24 hours or so.

From Monday through the rest of next week, upper level ridging
will reestablish itself over the southwestern U. S. while
spreading east into Texas as well. This will cause a drying and
warming trend across west central Texas through the end of next
week. Highs will warm into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees by next
Friday, and no rain is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The rain is primarily confined to our southeastern counties,
which includes KBBD, KJCT, and KSOA. Showers and storms are
expected to continue around this area into the evening. We could
see an isolated storm or two near KSJT and KABI as well this
afternoon, but confidence is lower. Ceilings are expected to lift
slightly into the afternoon, leaving MVFR to low end VFR
conditions. Ceilings are expected to drop back down to MVFR for
much of the area by tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  88  72  85 /  20  20  20  40
San Angelo  71  91  71  86 /  20  20  20  40
Junction    71  88  70  85 /  20  40  20  30
Brownwood   72  83  70  85 /  30  30  20  30
Sweetwater  72  91  72  88 /  10  10  10  40
Ozona       71  90  70  85 /  20  10  10  30
Brady       70  83  70  84 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San
Saba-Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...AP