795
FXUS64 KSJT 031803
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
103 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot on Thursday with high temperatures near or above the 100
  degree mark.

- Rain chances return by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Weak cold front making progress across northwest Kansas early this
afternoon will make progress across the Panhandle and Oklahoma to
near the Big Country by sunrise Thursday morning. Some CAMs show a
few showers along the front at times overnight as it approaches
Haskell and Throckmorton, but the models are not consistent with
it and it appears any showers would be very short-lived. Given
that, will leave a mention out of the forecast for now and if it
changes, can always add some small POPs into the forecast later
tonight.

Front dissipates during the day tomorrow as stronger southwest
surface flow takes over. A little convergence along the
dissipating front will combine with the downslope to kick
temperatures up above the 100 degree mark across the Big Country.
Hourly temperatures from some of the high-res models are in the
101-104 range, with the model blends showing highs tomorrow at
about the same level. Thus, these temperatures seem perfectly
plausible and will stick with that. For Abilene, the record high
is 106 in 2000 so we are forecasting highs just a few degrees
below the record for the date.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

High pressure aloft will keep warmer temperatures in the forecast
Thursday night into Friday across West Central Texas. High
temperatures in the upper 90s to near 104 degrees on Thursday will
make for overnight low temperatures struggle to fall lower than
the 70s. Some areas across the Big Country could see overnight
lows in the upper 70s as well. The upper-level ridge will slowly
shift eastward on Friday, with high temperatures in the mid 90s
to near 100.

A pattern change to a more active pattern is anticipated as we
head into the weekend. Tropical Storm Lorena is forecast to track
north Thursday into Friday, along the western coast of Baja
California. Models continue to bring this system northeast across
the Baja Peninsula and eventually into the Desert Southwest. Over
this weekend, a cold front will track southward across West
Central Texas and bring the next round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area from Saturday into Monday. The
combination of tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical
Storm Lorena and the aforementioned cold front will bring
increasing rain chances to the forecast area this weekend. Exactly
how much rain we see will depend on the eventual track of the
tropical system and exactly how far south the cold front makes it.
Temperatures this weekend into the first part of next week are
expected to be below seasonal normals, with highs in the 80s to
near 90 and overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through THursday morning. Light northeast winds early this
afternoon will become light and variable later this afternoon and
then switch around to the southeast and then south overnight. For
KABI and KSJT wind speeds before noon tomorrow will begin to
swing to the southwest and then start to see some wind gusts near
20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71 102  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  66  99  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    63  99  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   65 100  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71 101  78  96 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       65  97  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       66  97  73  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...07