486
FXUS64 KSJT 051115
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
615 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.

- Hotter temperatures are expected next week with minimal rain
  chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Expect low to medium chances of rain mainly this afternoon and
evening across much of the area due to abundant tropical moisture
ins the area, some weak mid level ascent and divergence aloft from a
jet streak to our northeast. the convection will be scattered across
the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. The main hazard will be
localized flash flooding and dangerous lightning. Otherwise,
expect warmer temperatures today with highs in the lower to mid
90s across the western 1/3 of the area and 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

An embedded disturbance in the flow aloft will drift around
Central Texas on Sunday. This will leave medium chances (40-50%)
for rain across the Concho Valley, I-10 corridor, and areas near
Mason and San Saba Counties. Most of these locations have already
seen saturated soils from previous rainfall events. As such, any
additional rainfall will pose a risk of excessive rainfall leading
to flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked
our area in a Slight Risk (15-40% chance) of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding from Saturday into Sunday morning. The
disturbance aloft will then exit the area by late Sunday evening.

Then, a high pressure develops across the southwestern U.S. This
will allow for a period of drier weather across the region for the
middle of next week. Temperatures should warm back into the lower
to middle 90s through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminals this morning. Expect
mainly VFR for this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
due to abundant tropical moisture. The better coverage of
activity will be east of a Brady to Junction line. The KBBD/KJCT
terminals may have a few hours of TSRA but confidence is still
low to include at the sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  72  85  72 /  30  20  50  10
San Angelo  92  71  86  70 /  30  30  60  10
Junction    88  70  83  70 /  50  40  50  10
Brownwood   85  71  84  70 /  40  30  30  10
Sweetwater  92  72  87  72 /  20  10  50  10
Ozona       92  70  84  70 /  20  20  50  10
Brady       85  70  81  70 /  50  40  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...21