160
FXUS64 KSJT 291912
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
200 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions today, with near to slightly above normal
  temperatures.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions
  of West Central Texas on Monday into Monday night. Expect isolated
  to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday through
  Friday as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Afternoon cu continues to develop and spread across much of West
Central Texas this afternoon. Getting this cu field up to the
point of developing showers and storms looks tough today,
although some very isolated convection can not be ruled out.
Tomorrow looks like the better chance, with the 12Z HRRR showing
some convection possible in 2 areas across West Central Texas.
Area 1 will be across the are mainly south of I-10 where outflow
from a stronger sea breeze may redevelop additional showers and
storms farther northwest before sunset. Area 2 will be across the
northern Big Country where a cold front moving in from the
Panhandle and Oklahoma will begin to approach by later afternoon
as well.

As for temperatures, increased low level moisture and a slight
weakening of the low level thermal ridge should allow temperatures
to come down a few degrees across many areas, especially across
the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Monday night, an upper level ridge will remain across much of the
southern U.S., but a weakness in the ridge will remain across West
Texas. This will result in isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorms development to our west, with some of this activity
affecting our western counties. In addition, a weak cold front will
move south into the Big Country before stalling. This front will
also be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Rain
chances will decrease as you head south and east. A very similar
setup is forecast on Tuesday with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, across
our western and northern counties. The main concern both days will
be locally heavy rainfall.

From Wednesday through Friday, the upper level ridge will be
centered across East Texas and Louisiana, while a weak upper level
trough tracks east across the Desert Southwest. This will help to
continue the wet pattern across the Desert Southwest. This will also
result in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development
each afternoon, mainly across the western half of the area.

High temperatures Tuesday through the end of the work week will
generally be below normal. The aforementioned weakness in the ridge
along with increased cloud cover due to showers and thunderstorms
will result in highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Upper level
ridging is then forecast to strengthen across the Southern Plains
this weekend into early next week. This will result in steadily
increasing temperatures, with highs Sunday back into the mid to
upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

No real change in pattern across the area, with VFR conditions to
prevail. May see some ragged brief stratus near the southern
terminals around sunrise Monday morning, but not expected to be
widespread enough to warrant a ceiling of any kind. South to
southeast winds will prevail and will continue to be gusty at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75  95  72  92 /   0  20  40  20
San Angelo  73  94  70  90 /   0  10  40  20
Junction    71  92  69  90 /   0  20  20  20
Brownwood   73  94  72  93 /   0  10  20  10
Sweetwater  75  97  71  92 /  10  30  50  30
Ozona       72  90  68  84 /   0  10  30  20
Brady       72  92  70  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07