Extended Streamflow Prediction
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Issued by NWS
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598
FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPSIO
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:FLOYD R AT SHELDON IA 1N
SHLI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 | 11 <5 39 | <5 <5 23 | <5 <5 <5
:FLOYD R AT ALTON IA
ALTI4 12.0 16.0 22.0 | <5 <5 39 | <5 <5 20 | <5 <5 <5
:FLOYD R AT LE MARS IA NO.2
LMRI4 20.0 21.0 26.0 | 5 <5 20 | <5 <5 12 | <5 <5 <5
:W BR FLOYD R AT STRUBLE IA 2N
STUI4 14.0 15.0 18.0 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:FLOYD R AT MERRILL IA
MRLI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 7
:FLOYD R AT JAMES IA 1NE
JMEI4 26.0 30.0 34.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT MILFORD IA 3W
MIFI4 13.0 16.0 20.0 | 12 12 78 | <5 <5 55 | <5 <5 6
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT SPENCER IA NO.2
SPWI4 10.0 14.0 16.0 | 6 15 70 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5
:OCHEYEDAN R AT SPENCER IA 3SW
SPOI4 8.0 9.5 10.5 | <5 <5 46 | <5 <5 13 | <5 <5 6
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT LINN GROVE IA
LNNI4 16.5 20.0 22.5 | <5 <5 50 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT CHEROKEE IA NO.2
CHKI4 17.0 21.0 24.0 | 6 <5 53 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT CORRECTIONVILLE IA
CRRI4 19.0 21.0 23.0 | 7 <5 10 | 7 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5
:MAPLE R AT MAPLETON IA 1SW
MAPI4 21.0 22.0 23.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT TURIN IA 4S
TURI4 25.0 28.0 34.5 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:PERRY CR AT SIOUX CITY IA 4N
SIOI4 24.0 26.0 28.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD 8NW
WTRS2 10.0 11.0 12.0 | <5 <5 19 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD
WBSS2 9.0 10.0 12.0 | 6 <5 63 | <5 <5 35 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD BRDWAY
WBWS2 10.5 11.0 13.5 | 5 <5 35 | <5 <5 34 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT CASTLEWOOD SD 1NW
CSWS2 9.0 11.0 16.0 | 5 6 35 | <5 <5 28 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT BROOKINGS SD 10SE
BRKS2 9.0 10.5 15.0 | 8 7 52 | <5 <5 34 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT DELL RAPIDS SD 2SW
DERS2 12.0 14.0 15.0 | 5 5 43 | <5 <5 18 | <5 <5 16
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX FALLS SD
SFLS2 12.0 15.0 17.0 | 6 <5 43 | <5 <5 17 | <5 <5 8
:SKUNK CR AT SIOUX FALLS SD 4SW
SIFS2 11.5 15.0 17.0 | <5 <5 9 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX FALLS SD NO CL
SXFS2 16.0 18.0 31.0 | 5 <5 22 | <5 <5 18 | <5 <5 <5
:SPLIT ROCK CR AT CORSON SD 1E
COSS2 8.5 11.0 14.0 | <5 <5 16 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5
:ROCK R AT LUVERNE MN
LUVM5 10.0 12.0 14.0 | <5 <5 15 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5
:ROCK R AT ROCK RAPIDS IA
RAPI4 13.0 16.0 19.0 | 5 5 36 | <5 <5 20 | <5 <5 9
:ROCK R AT ROCK VALLEY IA
RKVI4 16.0 17.0 19.0 | <5 <5 17 | <5 <5 12 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT HAWARDEN IA 4N
HWDI4 20.5 24.0 30.0 | 13 14 59 | <5 <5 31 | <5 <5 8
:BIG SIOUX R AT AKRON IA
AKRI4 16.0 18.0 20.0 | 13 15 58 | <5 <5 30 | <5 <5 17
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX CITY IA
SXCI4 32.0 38.0 41.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:FLOYD R
SHLI4 5.1/ 6.1/ 6.4/ 9.8/ 8.6/ 12.9/ 13.9/
ALTI4 6.0/ 6.4/ 6.8/ 8.4/ 8.1/ 9.4/ 11.4/
LMRI4 9.3/ 10.0/ 11.9/ 15.2/ 14.9/ 16.0/ 19.6/
:W BR FLOYD R
STUI4 3.9/ 4.2/ 5.0/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 9.2/ 12.3/
:FLOYD R
MRLI4 0.0/ 0.4/ 1.3/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 4.1/ 10.0/
JMEI4 8.4/ 9.0/ 9.4/ 11.1/ 11.0/ 11.8/ 18.3/
:LITTLE SIOUX R
MIFI4 6.6/ 7.2/ 8.0/ 11.8/ 11.3/ 13.6/ 15.2/
SPWI4 3.9/ 4.9/ 6.3/ 9.0/ 8.9/ 9.7/ 10.4/
:OCHEYEDAN R
SPOI4 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.2/ 4.6/ 4.4/ 6.0/ 6.9/
:LITTLE SIOUX R
LNNI4 5.5/ 6.0/ 7.0/ 10.0/ 9.1/ 10.5/ 12.0/
CHKI4 7.8/ 8.4/ 9.3/ 12.7/ 12.0/ 14.8/ 18.6/
CRRI4 5.2/ 5.4/ 6.2/ 11.1/ 10.0/ 13.1/ 21.6/
:MAPLE R
MAPI4 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.5/ 8.7/ 8.1/ 11.4/ 17.0/
:LITTLE SIOUX R
TURI4 6.8/ 7.2/ 8.2/ 13.5/ 12.6/ 16.7/ 23.6/
:PERRY CR
SIOI4 6.8/ 7.5/ 7.7/ 8.9/ 8.7/ 9.7/ 11.4/
:BIG SIOUX R
WTRS2 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 7.8/ 7.2/ 8.9/ 9.3/
WBSS2 5.1/ 5.2/ 5.5/ 7.9/ 7.6/ 8.7/ 9.3/
WBWS2 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.5/ 8.0/ 7.7/ 9.5/ 10.3/
CSWS2 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.4/ 7.3/ 6.8/ 8.2/ 9.1/
BRKS2 2.1/ 2.7/ 3.6/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 8.3/ 9.9/
DERS2 3.2/ 3.9/ 5.6/ 8.6/ 8.0/ 9.7/ 12.4/
SFLS2 3.8/ 5.1/ 6.7/ 10.0/ 9.8/ 10.6/ 12.7/
:SKUNK CR
SIFS2 2.7/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 6.8/ 6.3/ 7.8/ 8.2/
:BIG SIOUX R
SXFS2 5.8/ 6.6/ 7.3/ 10.9/ 10.4/ 11.6/ 15.1/
:SPLIT ROCK CR
COSS2 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.8/ 5.1/ 4.6/ 6.7/ 7.5/
:ROCK R
LUVM5 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 6.0/ 5.6/ 6.4/ 7.0/
RAPI4 7.1/ 7.4/ 8.2/ 10.9/ 10.2/ 11.4/ 13.4/
RKVI4 3.7/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 8.4/ 7.8/ 9.1/ 12.3/
:BIG SIOUX R
HWDI4 12.1/ 12.8/ 14.0/ 18.6/ 18.5/ 21.9/ 22.2/
AKRI4 4.8/ 5.8/ 7.8/ 14.6/ 14.5/ 16.7/ 16.9/
SXCI4 8.3/ 9.0/ 10.3/ 15.1/ 14.9/ 18.0/ 18.4/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:FLOYD R
SHLI4 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/
ALTI4 5.7/ 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/
LMRI4 9.4/ 9.2/ 8.4/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 6.9/ 6.7/
:W BR FLOYD R
STUI4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/
:FLOYD R
MRLI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/
JMEI4 8.4/ 8.3/ 8.1/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.6/ 7.4/
:LITTLE SIOUX R
MIFI4 6.4/ 6.2/ 5.8/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/
SPWI4 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:OCHEYEDAN R
SPOI4 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.2/ 1.4/ 1.1/ 1.1/
:LITTLE SIOUX R
LNNI4 5.7/ 5.5/ 5.3/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.9/
CHKI4 8.0/ 7.3/ 7.0/ 5.1/ 5.4/ 4.6/ 2.9/
CRRI4 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/
:MAPLE R
MAPI4 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.3/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/
:LITTLE SIOUX R
TURI4 7.0/ 6.7/ 6.5/ 5.8/ 5.9/ 5.5/ 5.4/
:PERRY CR
SIOI4 7.1/ 6.4/ 6.1/ 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/
:BIG SIOUX R
WTRS2 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/
WBSS2 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/
WBWS2 5.0/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.8/
CSWS2 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/
BRKS2 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/
DERS2 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
SFLS2 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/
:SKUNK CR
SIFS2 2.6/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/
:BIG SIOUX R
SXFS2 5.7/ 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 4.9/
:SPLIT ROCK CR
COSS2 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/
:ROCK R
LUVM5 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/
RAPI4 7.0/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/
RKVI4 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:BIG SIOUX R
HWDI4 11.8/ 11.7/ 11.6/ 11.2/ 11.3/ 11.1/ 11.1/
AKRI4 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.5/
SXCI4 8.0/ 7.9/ 7.8/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.4/
.END
$$