Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FNUS74 KSHV 041905
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Spot Forecast for Shallow Lake Area...USFWS
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
105 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on Thursday February
06. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service at (318) 631-3669 ext. 234, or if you have any
questions or concerns with this long range forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

The new model data has shown some improvement to a potential
widespread dense fog that might have been looming on the 10:13 am
spot forecast. We are still soupy on the RH by midnight and
through mid morning, but not as much saturation staying in the 90%
range as compared to the previous outlook of hours of 100%. The
light south winds will not add much to mix out the low levels
until about noon. However, the fog may be light and patchy for
this spot, and perhaps more localized to the light wind over
nearby lake waters just to your east at daybreak on Friday.


.THURSDAY...
TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........59  52  48  44  35  30  31  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............71  73  76  78  79  81  79  77
RH..............82  73  64  61  55  53  56  60
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   5   3
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  16  16  14  13  11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.2 3.7 4.5 5.0 5.0 3.7 2.0
Mix hgt (km)....0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  18  20  21  22  21  17  14
Trans wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans spd (m/s).8   8   9   9   10  9   8   6
Dispersion idx..49  68  87  108 122 120 95  53
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35  35  35  35  35  35  35  40  49  54  58  66
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............75  73  70  68  67  66  65  64  64  63  62  62
RH..............64  69  78  84  87  90  93  95  94  97  99  98
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.5
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  9   10  10  10  10  10  14  16  16  16  15
Trans wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Trans spd (m/s).4   4   4   4   4   4   4   6   7   7   7   7
Dispersion idx..3   3   3   3   4   5   6   6   7   7   7   29
LVORI...........3   3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4

.FRIDAY...
TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  73  78  80  75  64  58  53  42  37  35  32
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............61  62  64  65  68  70  73  75  77  79  77  75
RH..............100 99  94  93  85  75  68  64  58  54  58  64
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   4   3
20 FT wind gust.8   10  10  10  11  12  12  12  11  11  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.9
Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.14  14  15  15  15  14  13  12  12  10  9   8
Trans wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Trans spd (m/s).6   6   7   7   7   6   6   5   5   4   4   4
Dispersion idx..23  27  33  29  39  36  33  30  27  23  15  9
LVORI...........4   4   4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3

$$
Forecaster...CHATELAIN
Requested by...Matthew Johnson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2502243.0/SHV
.DELDT 02/04/25
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL matthew_johnson@fws.gov