093
FNUS74 KSHV 162142
FWSSHV

Spot Forecast for LA-KIF-Backbone...USFS
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
442 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 CDT on August 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (318) 631-3669 ext. 241, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Resending for information specifically for tomorrow...Mostly sunny
skies are expected, although they should increase in the afternoon
as a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms returns. Max
temperature on Sunday will be around 95-100 degrees and heat index
values approaching 110 degrees. RH values during the morning will
start out in the mid to upper 90s before reaching a minimum of
around 50 percent by the afternoon. Winds are expected to remain
mostly light, starting off in the morning out of the west before
transitioning to the north by the afternoon and then northeast by
the early evening hours. While winds will generally remain below 5
mph and gusts under 10 mph, gusty and erratic winds are expected
with any thunderstorm development. Mixing heights will be around
5900 feet by the afternoon hours. Transport winds will be from the
northwest around 7-9 mph before shifting to the northeast around
5-6 mph during the afternoon hours.

Previous discussion: Good afternoon, looking at some of the
precipitation amounts from yesterday in southern Natchitoches
Parish revealed anywhere from a half of an inch upwards to an inch
and a half. Additionally, we are seeing more showers on radar
this afternoon just to the south of the area, so hopefully we will
be able to see some additional rain today. With ongoing
convection across the area, outflow boundaries will be possible
again today with gusts from any boundary able to produce winds up
to 30-40 mph. Right now I am not seeing anything on radar that is
headed towards the fire site, but that does not mean something
could develop. Rainfall chances will decrease significantly once
we lose our afternoon heating later this evening. Showers and
thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast, although they
are low-end chances, for Sunday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent.
Temperature.........92 at forecast start...Max 95.
RH..................56 percent at forecast start...Min 51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 1 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Light winds. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise 4100
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 2 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South around 1 meters/second.
Dispersion index....12.
LVORI...............2.

TIME (CDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........22
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
CWR.............20
Temp............92
RH..............56
20 FT wind dir..SE
20 FT wind mph..1
20 FT wind gust.5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1
Transp wind dir.S
Transp wind spd.2
Trans wind dir..S
Trans spd (m/s).1
Dispersion idx..12
LVORI...........2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 96.
RH..................Min 51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 9 mph shifting to the northeast
                    5 to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.West around 4 meters/second shifting to the
                    northeast 2 to 3 meters/second late in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 17 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 31 late in the morning increasing
                    to 42 early in the afternoon decreasing to 35.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  14  12  14  18  20  26  31  34  29  27  31
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............76  75  78  81  87  90  92  93  94  94  95  94
RH..............94  97  94  88  72  64  58  56  53  53  51  51
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NE  N   NE
20 FT wind mph..1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   7   8   8   7   8   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.6 4.8 4.9 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.9   7   8   8   7   6   5   6   6   5   5   6
Trans wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NE  NE  NE
Trans spd (m/s).4   3   4   4   3   3   2   3   3   2   2   3
Dispersion idx..4   7   8   14  19  27  27  35  42  32  31  38
LVORI...........6   6   6   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...THORNE
Requested by...Rob Verdie, PSC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519869.3/SHV
.DELDT 08/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert_verdie@firenet.gov